2009 Loan Limits release

I would like to pass on to you about the 2009 conforming loan limit increases for the following counties. For all counties not listed the 2009 conforming loan limit of $417,000 will remain in place.


Salt Lake County

$600,300- 1-Unit
$768,500 - 2-Unit
$928,950 - 3-Unit
$1,154,450 4-Unit

Summit County

$600,300
$768,500
$928,950
$1,154,450

Tooele County

$600,300
$768,500
$928,950
$1,154,450

Davis County
$389,850
$499,050
$603,250
$749,700

Morgan County
36260
UT
$389,850
$499,050
$603,250
$749,700

Weber County
36260
UT
$389,850
$499,050
$603,250
$749,700

Wasatch County
25720
UT
$325,450
$416,600
$503,600
$625,850

Washington County
41100
UT
$278,300
$356,250
$430,650
$535,200

Daily Market CommentaryMonday, August 4, 2008 8:59 AM

This week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic data that are likely to affect mortgage rates. However, the biggest event of the week will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Tuesday. We may see some pressure in bonds tomorrow as investors prepare for the meeting, but most traders will likely make their moves post-meeting Tuesday.

The first important release is June's Personal Income and Outlays data tomorrow morning. The Income & Spending report helps us measure consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. If it shows sizable increases, bond selling could lead to higher mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.1% in income and an increase of 0.5% in spending.

New Market News

This week will be very important for mortgage rates despite the fact that it is a holiday shortened week. There are four relevant factual economic reports scheduled for release along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This means that we may see fairly significant changes to rates more than one day this week.
Today brings us the release of November's Existing Home Sales report, which comes from the National Association of Realtors. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but is not considered to be of high importance to bonds or mortgage rates. However, after the surprisingly large drop in November's New Home Sales report, we could see this data also influence mortgage rates if it shows similar results. The financial markets will close early today and remain closed Tuesday in observance of the New Year's Day holiday. They will reopen Wednesday morning with the release of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 50.5 reading in this month's release, meaning that sentiment fell slightly from November's 50.8. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.Also Wednesday will be the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed's thinking and concerns regarding inflation and monetary policy. It may also help form opinions of the Fed's future moves toward interest rates. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they shouldn't affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours. The Commerce Department will post November's Factory Orders data late Thursday morning, giving us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. This report is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last month, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 1.0% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a small change in rates.The final report of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department will post December's employment figures. The Employment report is considered to be one of the most important monthly releases we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a smaller than expected increase in new payrolls and a small increase or even a decrease in earnings would be good news for the bond market. Current forecasts call for a 0.1% increase in the unemployment rate, pushing it to 4.8%. Analysts are expecting to see an increase in new payrolls in the neighborhood of 70,000 with earnings rising 0.3%. If we see much fewer than 70,000 new jobs, we should see mortgage rates drop considerably Friday. However, stronger than expected readings will likely push mortgage rates higher.Overall, the key data of the week will be Wednesday's ISM index and Friday's Employment report, which could set the tone for the bond market and mortgage pricing for the next few weeks. If they show weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should move lower for the week.

Mortgage Commentary

This week is packed with economic releases and major events that will likely lead to a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing. There are seven reports scheduled for release along with another FOMC meeting. There is no relevant data scheduled for release today, but there is data being released every other day of the week.The first will be posted tomorrow morning with the release of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the month of October. This Conference Board index will be posted at 10:00 AM and gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is now expected to show a small decline from last month's 99.8 reading, indicating that consumers are a little less likely to make large purchases in the near future. As long as the reading doesn't exceed 99.5, we will likely see the bond market react favorably to this report. This data is watched closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.The second report of the week will be posted Wednesday morning with the release of the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is likely to have a major impact on the financial markets and mortgage pricing. There are three versions of this report, each a month apart. Wednesday's release is the first and usually has the biggest impact on the markets. Current forecasts call for an increase of approximately 3.1% in the GDP. I think we need to see a smaller increase for the bond market to rally and mortgage rates to drop. Just matching the estimate will probably bring a stock market rally and could cause mortgage rates to rise.The second report of the day Wednesday will be the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. Rapidly rising costs raises wage inflation concerns and may hurt bond prices. It is expected to show an increase in costs of 0.9%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.The week's FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting that begins tomorrow and adjourns Wednesday afternoon. It is expected to bring another rate cut to key short-term interest rates. Assuming this does happen, traders will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of the Fed's next move. While it is widely expected that the Fed will cuts rates at this meeting, there is a lot of different opinions of when the following cut will come, if at all. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM Wednesday, so look for quite a bit of volatility during afternoon hours.Overall, it is going to be a pretty active week for the bond market and mortgage rates. Wednesday's GDP report and Friday's Employment report are the single most important releases of the week. Wednesday will likely be the most important day with the GDP and FOMC meeting, but Friday's data can also lead to sizable changes in mortgage rates. I am expecting to see significant movement in rates this week, so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

Three monthly economic reports

from 9/30/07
This week brings us the release of only three monthly economic reports for the bond market to digest. The first report of the week comes late tomorrow morning when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for September. This index gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. Analysts are expecting a small decline from the 52.9 reading last month to 52.5 this month. The 50.0 benchmark is extremely important because below that level means more surveyed executives felt business worsened than those who said it had improved. This data is important not only because it measures manufacturer sentiment, but it is very recent data. Some economic releases track data that are 30-60 days old, but the ISM index is only a few weeks old. If we get a smaller than expected reading, I expect to see the bond market rally and mortgage rates fall further tomorrow morning.
The next release is Thursday when the Commerce Department will post August's Factory Orders data. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 2.5%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them lower Thursday.