Quarter Rate Cut

Today's FOMC adjournment brought us the expected quarter point rate cut that was expected by many, but the post-meeting statement created concern about inflation. The Fed referenced the weak housing market as a contributing factor to the change in short-term interest rates, but also indicated that inflation remains an issue, particularly with the high energy and oil prices we are currently seeing.The move and comments leads many to believe that the Fed will not make another rate cut in the near future.

The stock markets have surprisingly reacted well to the news with the Dow up 131 points and the Nasdaq gaining 35 points. However, the bond market and mortgage rates have not faired so well. The bond market is currently down 23/32, which will likely revise this afternoon's mortgage rates higher by approximately .25 of a discount point from this morning's rates.

This morning's release of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revealed a 3.9% annual pace of economic growth, exceeding forecasts of a 3.1% rate. This means that economic activity was moderately stronger than expected. However, offsetting that was good news in the key inflation reading within the report. It showed a significantly lower reading than was expected, indicating inflationary pressures were well under control.

Also posted this morning was the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. It showed a 0.8% that was slightly lower than forecasts. This can also be taken as good news for bonds and mortgage pricing because it eases wage inflation concerns.

Now that the Fed meeting is behind us, we have to turn our attention to the remaining economic news of the week. There are a couple of high-impact reports still left to be posted that may significantly affect the markets and mortgage rates. September's Personal Income and Outlays report will be posted early tomorrow morning. This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see increases of 0.4% in income and 0.4% in outlays.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their Manufacturing Index for October late Thursday morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline from September's 52.0 reading. If we get a reading below 51.5, we should see mortgage rates drop tomorrow morning. On the other hand, a reading above 51.5, indicating manufacturing activity may be stronger than thought, could fuel a stock rally and drive mortgage rates higher.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....Float if my closing were taking place within 7 days...Float if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Mortgage Commentary

This week is packed with economic releases and major events that will likely lead to a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing. There are seven reports scheduled for release along with another FOMC meeting. There is no relevant data scheduled for release today, but there is data being released every other day of the week.The first will be posted tomorrow morning with the release of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the month of October. This Conference Board index will be posted at 10:00 AM and gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is now expected to show a small decline from last month's 99.8 reading, indicating that consumers are a little less likely to make large purchases in the near future. As long as the reading doesn't exceed 99.5, we will likely see the bond market react favorably to this report. This data is watched closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.The second report of the week will be posted Wednesday morning with the release of the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is likely to have a major impact on the financial markets and mortgage pricing. There are three versions of this report, each a month apart. Wednesday's release is the first and usually has the biggest impact on the markets. Current forecasts call for an increase of approximately 3.1% in the GDP. I think we need to see a smaller increase for the bond market to rally and mortgage rates to drop. Just matching the estimate will probably bring a stock market rally and could cause mortgage rates to rise.The second report of the day Wednesday will be the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. Rapidly rising costs raises wage inflation concerns and may hurt bond prices. It is expected to show an increase in costs of 0.9%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.The week's FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting that begins tomorrow and adjourns Wednesday afternoon. It is expected to bring another rate cut to key short-term interest rates. Assuming this does happen, traders will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of the Fed's next move. While it is widely expected that the Fed will cuts rates at this meeting, there is a lot of different opinions of when the following cut will come, if at all. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM Wednesday, so look for quite a bit of volatility during afternoon hours.Overall, it is going to be a pretty active week for the bond market and mortgage rates. Wednesday's GDP report and Friday's Employment report are the single most important releases of the week. Wednesday will likely be the most important day with the GDP and FOMC meeting, but Friday's data can also lead to sizable changes in mortgage rates. I am expecting to see significant movement in rates this week, so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional.