Daily Market CommentaryMonday, August 4, 2008 8:59 AM

This week brings us the release of only three pieces of economic data that are likely to affect mortgage rates. However, the biggest event of the week will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Tuesday. We may see some pressure in bonds tomorrow as investors prepare for the meeting, but most traders will likely make their moves post-meeting Tuesday.

The first important release is June's Personal Income and Outlays data tomorrow morning. The Income & Spending report helps us measure consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. If it shows sizable increases, bond selling could lead to higher mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a decline of 0.1% in income and an increase of 0.5% in spending.

Market New: Stocks, Bonds and Interest Rate

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following a negative open for stocks. The stock markets are starting the week off with losses with the Dow down 10 points and the Nasdaq down 15 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately 125 of a discount point due to weakness late Friday.



There is no relevant economic news being released today. The rest of the week will likely prove to be very active in terms of mortgage rate movement due to the economic data and other events that are scheduled. There are six economic reports scheduled for release between tomorrow and Friday, in addition to another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Together, we have the makings of a potentially volatile week in the financial and mortgage markets.

New Market News

This week will be very important for mortgage rates despite the fact that it is a holiday shortened week. There are four relevant factual economic reports scheduled for release along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This means that we may see fairly significant changes to rates more than one day this week.
Today brings us the release of November's Existing Home Sales report, which comes from the National Association of Realtors. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but is not considered to be of high importance to bonds or mortgage rates. However, after the surprisingly large drop in November's New Home Sales report, we could see this data also influence mortgage rates if it shows similar results. The financial markets will close early today and remain closed Tuesday in observance of the New Year's Day holiday. They will reopen Wednesday morning with the release of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 50.5 reading in this month's release, meaning that sentiment fell slightly from November's 50.8. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.Also Wednesday will be the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed's thinking and concerns regarding inflation and monetary policy. It may also help form opinions of the Fed's future moves toward interest rates. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they shouldn't affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours. The Commerce Department will post November's Factory Orders data late Thursday morning, giving us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. This report is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last month, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 1.0% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a small change in rates.The final report of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department will post December's employment figures. The Employment report is considered to be one of the most important monthly releases we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a smaller than expected increase in new payrolls and a small increase or even a decrease in earnings would be good news for the bond market. Current forecasts call for a 0.1% increase in the unemployment rate, pushing it to 4.8%. Analysts are expecting to see an increase in new payrolls in the neighborhood of 70,000 with earnings rising 0.3%. If we see much fewer than 70,000 new jobs, we should see mortgage rates drop considerably Friday. However, stronger than expected readings will likely push mortgage rates higher.Overall, the key data of the week will be Wednesday's ISM index and Friday's Employment report, which could set the tone for the bond market and mortgage pricing for the next few weeks. If they show weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should move lower for the week.

Daily Market Update

Daily Market CommentaryLast Updated: 12/11/2007
TUESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:
Today's FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement of another quarter point rate cut by Mr. Bernanke and friends. This was the most popular move with analysts and market participants, but as expected, the markets have reacted strongly. Stocks have dropped considerably while bonds have rallied since the announcement. The Dow currently stands down 177 points from yesterday's closing level while the Nasdaq has fallen 35 points. The bond market is now up 42/32, which will likely improve this afternoon's mortgage rates by approximately .25 of a discount point over this morning's rates.This was the third consecutive meeting with a rate cut, which will mean immediately lowered credit card and home equity loan rates for consumers and cheaper borrowing costs for corporate borrowers. In the post-meeting statement, the Fed indicated that more rates cuts may be needed to prevent the economy from slipping into a recession, but also hinted that inflation still a concern. Still, bonds are rallying hard while stocks are falling. I think this afternoon's bond strength is partly being fueled by the stock weakness than directly by the Fed's rate cut or statement.I am shifting to a float recommendation across the board simply to capture this afternoon's and possibly tomorrow morning's improvements. I will likely be moving back towards locking before we get to this week's key data, especially since two of them address inflationary pressures.There was no relevant economic news released today. We will see October's Goods and Services Trade Balance report posted early tomorrow morning. This report gives the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is the week's least important release. It is expected to show a $57.0 billion trade deficit. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don't expect it to affect mortgage pricing.The first important data of the week comes early Thursday morning with the release of November's Retail Sales report. This data is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts call for it to show a 0.6% increase in sales from October's levels. If it reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates should fall as a result. A stronger than expected reading could fuel stock market gains and push mortgage rates higher Thursday morning. Also Thursday and just as important as the sales data, the Labor Department will release November's Producer Price Index (PPI). This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If Thursday's release reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, the bond market should fair well and mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are showing a 1.5% rise in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

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Four Factual Economic Reports

This week brings us four factual economic reports for the markets to digest. They are all scheduled for release Thursday and Friday, so the first part of the week will be left mostly up to the stock markets. In addition to the factual reports, we will also get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting that can also cause movement in rates. Three of the four reports and the minutes are considered to be moderately or highly important to the bond market and mortgage rates. Therefore, we should expect to see another week of movement in rates.
The bond market will be closed today in observance of the Columbus Day holiday. The first report of the week comes Tuesday afternoon when the Fed will release the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed's next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher Tuesday afternoon. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rates cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.

Federal Reserve Accepts Signs of Economic Slowdown - Cuts Discount Rate

In a dramatic, yet anticipated move, the Federal Reserve Board cut its discount rate by half a percent. The discount rate is the cost of money for banks and lending institutions that borrow directly from the Fed. The new rate is 5.75%.

The discount rate is different from the overnight lending rate which impacts short term mortgage rates, auto loans, credit cards and savings account rates. The Fed left the overnight lending rate steady in its last meeting August 7th.

Since that meeting the Fed has had to inject billions of dollars into the money supply to keep the overnight lending rate at 5.25%. This has been a result of banks across the country hoarding cash and diminishing the money supply. In Europe the same thing has happened with the European Central Bank injecting hundreds of billions of euros into the system.

This current activity is a direct result of fears concerning the subprime mortgage market. Buyers of collateralized loans, bundled together for trade on Wall Street as mortgage backed securities, have deep fears many of the loans may go bad. As a result no one is buying these once hot instruments and lenders are having to keep loans on their books which has decreased the amount of cash they can lend.

Right now the markets are acting on fear and speculation, not hard facts. Until the exposure to subprime and Alt-A loans fully plays out, the markets will continue to be volatile. Today's action by the Fed shows its willingness to step in and do what it can to calm the markets. Wall Street's initial reaction was a three hundred point bump to stocks after yesterday's wild ride. Over the past month the Dow has lost about a thousand points after setting a new record at 14,000.

Today's lowering of the discount rate suggests the Fed may cut the overnight lending rate at its next meeting in September. In the accompanying statement to the discount rate cut, the Fed indicated economic growth had now become a concern and it could take further action should the markets continue to decline -

In another statement, the central bank indicated that "financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward."

The Fed added that "although recent data suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace, the Federal Open Market Committee judges that the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably" and that the Fed was prepared to take more action if necessary.

Should the Fed begin to lower the overnight rate, this will be good news for borrowers, homeowners seeking a refinance and potential homeowners. Wall Street is also hoping for a rate cut to keep business flowing at its current pace.