The Forecast

U.S. Economic Outlook

(PDF: 28KB)The recent action by the federal government in "taking over" the two GSEs could be the shot in the arm that the housing market needs.
http://www.realtor.org/research/reinsights/forecast

The Forecast: Charts(PDF:180KB)With the government's takeover of Fannie and Freddie, the spread between 10-year Treasuries and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will surely narrow and hence result in lower mortgage rates.
A "Shot in the Arm" for the Housing Market
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

Home sales continue to edge up and down. Overly stringent lending criteria imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the past month no doubt held back contract signings. Pending home sales (see page 3) declined in July, after rising in June. But the recent action by the federal government in "taking over" the two GSEs could be the shot in the arm that the housing market needs.

Even with the latest pullback in contract signings, pending home sales have been fairly stable on a national basis for nearly a year, with dramatic local market differences continuing. Contract signings have been steaming ahead, nearly doubling in activity from a year before in several California and Florida markets. The outer Washington, D.C., exurbs also are coming around very strongly. That bodes well for future home sales nationally.

Another factor is the attractiveness of FHA-mortgages. FHA is taking a more active role in serving a broad cross-section of home buyers, but it will take some time to fully get up to speed. There's been a surge in FHA mortgage applications. Interestingly, many people in high-cost areas aren't familiar with FHA programs. REALTORS® should be aware that they are one of the major sources of information about mortgage programs for their clients. They should familiarize themselves with this increasingly valuable program.

Still, there are many ambiguities in the marketplace. The economy is producing more, yet job cuts continue. GDP growth in the second quarter of this year was 3.3 percent. In fact, the last time GDP growth was negative was in the fourth quarter of last year - and that was before the unprecedented surge in oil prices. In spite of relatively healthy GDP growth, 84,000 non-farm payroll jobs were shed in August - more than most analysts (including me) expected. And those most recent job cuts have been across the board in all sectors.

Those job cuts help explain anemic consumer confidence. While consumer confidence rose in August, the Conference Board reports that its consumer confidence index stood at 56.9 for that month.. The reading suggests that for most Americans, the economy is basically in "neutral." A first-time home buyer tax credit - one of the provisions of the economic stimulus legislation passed and signed into law earlier in the summer - and lower interest rates on newly conforming jumbo loans favors consumers. But buyer confidence remains low. Even with the Treasury Department's direct intervention in the secondary mortgage market, it is unclear if we will go back to sound normal underwriting criteria, or if it will remain overly stringent. The housing market outlook is very cloudy.

We often cite the real estate professional's mantra: all real estate is local. But economic conditions are also local. The speed and timing of a housing and economic recovery depends on local market conditions. Based on local market fundamentals, I expect robust home price growth in places like Denver over the next two years. Up until the weekend of September 12, I would have included Houston in that list as well, but given the recent damage wrought by Hurricane Ike we'll have to watch the Houston market closely to see how fast its economy recovers from the storm. In addition, the frequent reporting of multiple bids in California and Florida may be signaling a bottom in home prices in those areas. Nationally, home sales are stable now but are expected to increase in coming quarters.

Group Health Plan for Realtors

Do you know that Realtors are notcovered by any specific grop plans?

The Salt Lake Board of REALTORS®, in conjunction with the Utah Association of REALTORS®, is pursuing a group health plan for its members. The plan would allow REALTORS® to join a group health insurance pool that would offer dental, vision and major medical options. The plan would allow pre-existing conditions to be covered. Group plan rates could be more competitive when compared to rates of other private insurance plans.

Choosing a mortgage

Mortgage rates have stayed relatively low, but they are still considerably above rock-bottom levels reached two years ago, and many worry that they will ultimately head higher. It is one of the reasons why Realtors think it is a great time to buy or move now.

Still, that's not the only consideration when choosing a mortgage. Here's how to make the decision.

1. 15-year versus 30-year debate

The first question you should ask is, "How much can I afford to pay on a monthly basis?"
Keep in mind, your mortgage payment is only part of what you'll pay to live in your home. You also should budget for furniture, your house's upkeep and the general expenses of life (like, say, food).

A 30-year mortgage will have a lower monthly payment and a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage.

So you'll have a smaller monthly obligation but you'll pay more for your house over time because you're paying it off with interest for a longer period.
Conversely, a 15-year mortgage will have a higher monthly payment and a lower interest rate so you'll pay less for your house because you're paying it off in a shorter period.

"For most home buyers, especially first-time buyers, taking a 15-year (or 20-year) mortgage is out of the question," said Keith Gumbinger, vice president for mortgage tracker HSH Associates. The higher monthly payments are often too much to handle for these types of buyers.
But for home buyers with sufficient income and a desire to be mortgage-free in a short time, a 15-year loan might be a good bet.

If you do not feel comfortable commiting to 15-year loan, do yourself a favor at least and every time you save some moeny put them toward priciple of the mortgage, it will reduce the amount of moeny your own, and therefore, it will reduce how long it will take to pay it off and some interest money.

2. Fixed versus adjustable-rate conundrum

The second question you should ask is, "How long will you be in the house?" You probably can't answer with absolute certainty, but you can play the odds.

Say, for example, you're single and buying a small condo but you can easily envision yourself married; or you've just started a family and plan to expand it at some point. Chances are good you'll want to trade up to a new home in five to seven years. On the other hand, maybe you've had your family and want to settle into a place with a good school system, which your kids will be using for the next 12 years.

My experience says that most people stay in the house/condo longer than they though they would originally. So keep that in mind.

Whatever the answer, it will help you decide whether it makes sense to get a fixed-rate or an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).

A fixed-rate mortgage locks in a rate for the length of your loan.

ARMs, meanwhile, are short-term fixed-rate loans: After the fixed rate term is up, the rate adjusts at regular intervals in accordance with current interest rate conditions at that time.

A 5/1 ARM, for example, has a fixed rate for five years and then adjusts every year for the next 25 years. (ARMs typically run on a 30-year schedule.)

The length of the fixed-rate term on an ARM typically can range anywhere from one month to 10 years. The longer the rate is fixed, the higher the interest rate you'll get.

But generally speaking -- and there have been exceptions in the past -- ARMs will cost you less in the short-term. With the ARM, both your monthly payments and interest rates should be lower than either a fixed rate 15-year or 30-year mortgage.

The risk with an ARM is that when interest rates rise, you could end up paying much more than you bargained for. "You're subject to the vagaries of the market," Gumbinger said. That's why in today's low-rate environment, he noted, "You want to maximize the fixed-rate picture to match your time frame."

If you know you'll be in a home for 12 years or more, a 30-year fixed rate mortgage might work better for you than, say, a 5/1 ARM, where you fix a rate for five years and then it adjusts every year after that. But if you think you won't be in the home longer than five or six years, a 5/1 ARM might make more sense.

3. A dollars-and-sense exercise

Say you need a $200,000 loan to buy a home and you can get the current average rates for a 30-year fixed, a 15-year fixed, or a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage.

If the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at 6.62 percent - a level it was at just a few months ago - your monthly payment would be $1,280. The interest you pay over the life of your loan would total $260,786.

With a 15-year fixed rate at 5.94 percent, your monthly payment would be $1,681. The interest you pay over the life of your loan would total $102,623, or about $158,163 less than the 30-year fixed.

With a 5/1 ARM at 4.20 percent, your monthly payment would be $978 for the first five years. The total interest you pay over the life of the loan if you stayed in your home past five years is anyone's guess because your rate would then adjust annually. But if you move after five years, that won't be an issue.

So, to say the least it is only few things to consider...And, always compare at least 2-3 mortgage companies, you will be surprise how different they charge you so called "closing costs"

Utah still lead the nation for rising home prices

For the scores of homeowners who are having to cut asking prices to get their properties sold, it might not feel like Utah's real estate market could be considered the best in the country. But in a report released Tuesday by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, Utah is No. 1 among all states in home-price appreciation, from the fourth quarter of 2006 to the same period in 2007, with a 9.27 percent gain. It is the state's fifth consecutive quarter in the top spot. Utah's appreciation rate is down considerably from the double-digit gains of recent years. When it first topped the nation in appreciation in the fourth quarter of 2006, its one-year appreciation topped 17 percent. By
the third quarter of last year, appreciation had slowed to 12.9 percent before dipping even farther in the fourth quarter. But compared with many other states, coping with a much sharper downturn, Utah's residential real estate market is faring much better.



Read More on http://www.sltrib.com/ci_8375959?source=most_emailed

Home Prices Along the Wasatch Front

Very helpful link for local newspaper. http://extras.sltrib.com/HomePrices/
Find your zip code and compare.

Or, call me for your Home Equity Evaluation,

Marina Vialtsina
(Realtor)
http://www.usarussiarealty.com/
801-649-5883