Daily Real Estate News | October 8, 2008
Pending Home Sales Up Sharply
Pending home sales activity surged as buyers took advantage of low home prices and affordable interest rates, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF
REALTORS®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, jumped 7.4 percent to 93.4 from an upwardly revised reading of 87.0 in July, and is 8.8 percent higher than August 2007 when it stood at 85.8. The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it stood at 101.4.
Improved Affordability
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says home buyers were responding to improved affordability. “What we’re seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island, and the Washington, D.C., region,” he says.
“The improvement also reflects the drop in mortgage interest rates after the government takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. It’s unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we’re hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales", adds Yun.
The PHSI in the West surged 18.4 percent to 109.5 in August and remains 37.8 percent above a year ago. In the Northeast the index jumped 8.4 percent to 79.8 and is 2.0 percent higher than August 2007. The index in the Midwest rose 3.6 percent to 84.5 in August and is 6.6 percent above a year ago. In the South, the index increased 2.3 percent to 96.0 but is 2.1 percent below August 2007.
Yun notes the unusual timing of contract activity in August. “Home buyers in July were hampered by overly stringent lending criteria in the months before the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie,” he said. “August shows some unleashing of pent-up demand before the credit crisis accelerated in September.”
He cautioned that the sampling size for pending home sales is smaller than the track on existing-home sales, so there is more volatility in the forward-looking series. “We need to see just how much of this gain holds up,” Yun adds.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord says despite all the turmoil in world financial markets, home mortgages are available. “The recently enacted economic stimulus package should help housing by gradually freeing the flow of credit," he says.
Yun now expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract for two consecutive quarters, in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2009, before expanding in latter part of 2009 as the housing market begins a steady improvement.
Existing-home sales projected to rise next year
Looking at middle-ground assumptions, existing-home sales are forecast at 5.04 million this year and 5.41 million in 2009. Following national declines of 5 to 8 percent in 2008, home prices are projected to increase 2 to 3 percent next year.
New-home sales should total around 503,000 this year and 471,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are likely to fall 28.2 percent to 973,000 units this year, and come in around 843,000 in 2009 as builders continue to clear the accumulation in inventory.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter and rise gradually to 6.6 percent by the end of 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to average 18 percentage points higher this year than in 2007.
The unemployment rate is projected to average 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter and then average 6.6 percent in 2009. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is estimated at 4.0 percent for 2008 and 2.0 percent next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.0 percent in 2009.
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Marina Vialtsina
Showing posts with label pending home sales. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pending home sales. Show all posts
Monday, October 13, 2008
Saturday, October 4, 2008
The Forecast
U.S. Economic Outlook
(PDF: 28KB)The recent action by the federal government in "taking over" the two GSEs could be the shot in the arm that the housing market needs.
http://www.realtor.org/research/reinsights/forecast
The Forecast: Charts(PDF:180KB)With the government's takeover of Fannie and Freddie, the spread between 10-year Treasuries and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will surely narrow and hence result in lower mortgage rates.
A "Shot in the Arm" for the Housing Market
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Home sales continue to edge up and down. Overly stringent lending criteria imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the past month no doubt held back contract signings. Pending home sales (see page 3) declined in July, after rising in June. But the recent action by the federal government in "taking over" the two GSEs could be the shot in the arm that the housing market needs.
Even with the latest pullback in contract signings, pending home sales have been fairly stable on a national basis for nearly a year, with dramatic local market differences continuing. Contract signings have been steaming ahead, nearly doubling in activity from a year before in several California and Florida markets. The outer Washington, D.C., exurbs also are coming around very strongly. That bodes well for future home sales nationally.
Another factor is the attractiveness of FHA-mortgages. FHA is taking a more active role in serving a broad cross-section of home buyers, but it will take some time to fully get up to speed. There's been a surge in FHA mortgage applications. Interestingly, many people in high-cost areas aren't familiar with FHA programs. REALTORS® should be aware that they are one of the major sources of information about mortgage programs for their clients. They should familiarize themselves with this increasingly valuable program.
Still, there are many ambiguities in the marketplace. The economy is producing more, yet job cuts continue. GDP growth in the second quarter of this year was 3.3 percent. In fact, the last time GDP growth was negative was in the fourth quarter of last year - and that was before the unprecedented surge in oil prices. In spite of relatively healthy GDP growth, 84,000 non-farm payroll jobs were shed in August - more than most analysts (including me) expected. And those most recent job cuts have been across the board in all sectors.
Those job cuts help explain anemic consumer confidence. While consumer confidence rose in August, the Conference Board reports that its consumer confidence index stood at 56.9 for that month.. The reading suggests that for most Americans, the economy is basically in "neutral." A first-time home buyer tax credit - one of the provisions of the economic stimulus legislation passed and signed into law earlier in the summer - and lower interest rates on newly conforming jumbo loans favors consumers. But buyer confidence remains low. Even with the Treasury Department's direct intervention in the secondary mortgage market, it is unclear if we will go back to sound normal underwriting criteria, or if it will remain overly stringent. The housing market outlook is very cloudy.
We often cite the real estate professional's mantra: all real estate is local. But economic conditions are also local. The speed and timing of a housing and economic recovery depends on local market conditions. Based on local market fundamentals, I expect robust home price growth in places like Denver over the next two years. Up until the weekend of September 12, I would have included Houston in that list as well, but given the recent damage wrought by Hurricane Ike we'll have to watch the Houston market closely to see how fast its economy recovers from the storm. In addition, the frequent reporting of multiple bids in California and Florida may be signaling a bottom in home prices in those areas. Nationally, home sales are stable now but are expected to increase in coming quarters.
(PDF: 28KB)The recent action by the federal government in "taking over" the two GSEs could be the shot in the arm that the housing market needs.
http://www.realtor.org/research/reinsights/forecast
The Forecast: Charts(PDF:180KB)With the government's takeover of Fannie and Freddie, the spread between 10-year Treasuries and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will surely narrow and hence result in lower mortgage rates.
A "Shot in the Arm" for the Housing Market
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Home sales continue to edge up and down. Overly stringent lending criteria imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the past month no doubt held back contract signings. Pending home sales (see page 3) declined in July, after rising in June. But the recent action by the federal government in "taking over" the two GSEs could be the shot in the arm that the housing market needs.
Even with the latest pullback in contract signings, pending home sales have been fairly stable on a national basis for nearly a year, with dramatic local market differences continuing. Contract signings have been steaming ahead, nearly doubling in activity from a year before in several California and Florida markets. The outer Washington, D.C., exurbs also are coming around very strongly. That bodes well for future home sales nationally.
Another factor is the attractiveness of FHA-mortgages. FHA is taking a more active role in serving a broad cross-section of home buyers, but it will take some time to fully get up to speed. There's been a surge in FHA mortgage applications. Interestingly, many people in high-cost areas aren't familiar with FHA programs. REALTORS® should be aware that they are one of the major sources of information about mortgage programs for their clients. They should familiarize themselves with this increasingly valuable program.
Still, there are many ambiguities in the marketplace. The economy is producing more, yet job cuts continue. GDP growth in the second quarter of this year was 3.3 percent. In fact, the last time GDP growth was negative was in the fourth quarter of last year - and that was before the unprecedented surge in oil prices. In spite of relatively healthy GDP growth, 84,000 non-farm payroll jobs were shed in August - more than most analysts (including me) expected. And those most recent job cuts have been across the board in all sectors.
Those job cuts help explain anemic consumer confidence. While consumer confidence rose in August, the Conference Board reports that its consumer confidence index stood at 56.9 for that month.. The reading suggests that for most Americans, the economy is basically in "neutral." A first-time home buyer tax credit - one of the provisions of the economic stimulus legislation passed and signed into law earlier in the summer - and lower interest rates on newly conforming jumbo loans favors consumers. But buyer confidence remains low. Even with the Treasury Department's direct intervention in the secondary mortgage market, it is unclear if we will go back to sound normal underwriting criteria, or if it will remain overly stringent. The housing market outlook is very cloudy.
We often cite the real estate professional's mantra: all real estate is local. But economic conditions are also local. The speed and timing of a housing and economic recovery depends on local market conditions. Based on local market fundamentals, I expect robust home price growth in places like Denver over the next two years. Up until the weekend of September 12, I would have included Houston in that list as well, but given the recent damage wrought by Hurricane Ike we'll have to watch the Houston market closely to see how fast its economy recovers from the storm. In addition, the frequent reporting of multiple bids in California and Florida may be signaling a bottom in home prices in those areas. Nationally, home sales are stable now but are expected to increase in coming quarters.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Pending Home Sales Index and Existing-home Sales
Pending Home Sales Index and Existing-home Sales
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), based on contracts signed in June, rose 5.3 percent to 89.0 from a downwardly revised reading of 84.5 in May, but remains 12.3 percent below June 2007 when it stood at 101.4. The PHSI jumped 9.3 percent to 92.4 in the South; rose 4.6 percent to 101.0 in the West; increased 3.4 percent to 79.6 in the Northeast and rose 1.3 percent in June to 79.6 in the Midwest. Lawrence Yu, NAR chief economist, said, "This is welcome news because a rise in contract activity is necessary for an overall housing recovery. With a tax credit now available to first-time home buyers, increases in home sales could be sustained with the momentum carrying into 2009.”
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.00 million units in July from a downwardly revised level of 4.85 million in June, but are 13.2 percent lower than the 5.76 million-unit pace in July 2007.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), based on contracts signed in June, rose 5.3 percent to 89.0 from a downwardly revised reading of 84.5 in May, but remains 12.3 percent below June 2007 when it stood at 101.4. The PHSI jumped 9.3 percent to 92.4 in the South; rose 4.6 percent to 101.0 in the West; increased 3.4 percent to 79.6 in the Northeast and rose 1.3 percent in June to 79.6 in the Midwest. Lawrence Yu, NAR chief economist, said, "This is welcome news because a rise in contract activity is necessary for an overall housing recovery. With a tax credit now available to first-time home buyers, increases in home sales could be sustained with the momentum carrying into 2009.”
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 3.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.00 million units in July from a downwardly revised level of 4.85 million in June, but are 13.2 percent lower than the 5.76 million-unit pace in July 2007.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Economists: Utah home sales market solid despite numerous challenges
Article from Salt Lake Tribune:
(Please call me for individual Home Evaluation. From my experience, everything depends from certain area and price range. I am always available on 801-649-5883 or marinav30@yahoo.com, Thanks, Marina)
Economists: Utah home sales market solid despite numerous challenges
By Lesley Mitchell The Salt Lake Tribune
Article Last Updated: 10/23/2007 07:48:26 AM MDT
After years of increases, home sales along the Wasatch Front were down sharply in the third quarter, compared with last year, while prices increased at a slower pace. In Salt Lake County, 2,712 homes changed hands in the July-August-September period, down 33.8 percent from the same three months last year, according to a new report by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. Among other counties, Tooele had the biggest decline in sales, down 36.4 percent, followed by Utah County, down 33.9 percent. Sales in Davis County were down 24.3 percent, with Weber County, down 22.4 percent. The drops, at levels unseen in years, are in stark contrast to the steady increases in home sales seen since the early 2000s. "It's like we were speeding along at 150 miles per hour and now we're going the speed limit," said Gary Cannon, president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. "The market is just slower now, and we just need to get used to it." Slower sales have led to slower appreciation, which is tilting the landscape in favor of buyers. Median selling prices, which had been increasing in many areas along the Wasatch Front in excess of 20 percent in 2006 when compared with 2005, are rising at a lower rate this year. Price gains in Salt Lake County (read the remaining on http://www.sltrib.com/ci_7253946?source=email)
(Please call me for individual Home Evaluation. From my experience, everything depends from certain area and price range. I am always available on 801-649-5883 or marinav30@yahoo.com, Thanks, Marina)
Economists: Utah home sales market solid despite numerous challenges
By Lesley Mitchell The Salt Lake Tribune
Article Last Updated: 10/23/2007 07:48:26 AM MDT
After years of increases, home sales along the Wasatch Front were down sharply in the third quarter, compared with last year, while prices increased at a slower pace. In Salt Lake County, 2,712 homes changed hands in the July-August-September period, down 33.8 percent from the same three months last year, according to a new report by the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. Among other counties, Tooele had the biggest decline in sales, down 36.4 percent, followed by Utah County, down 33.9 percent. Sales in Davis County were down 24.3 percent, with Weber County, down 22.4 percent. The drops, at levels unseen in years, are in stark contrast to the steady increases in home sales seen since the early 2000s. "It's like we were speeding along at 150 miles per hour and now we're going the speed limit," said Gary Cannon, president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. "The market is just slower now, and we just need to get used to it." Slower sales have led to slower appreciation, which is tilting the landscape in favor of buyers. Median selling prices, which had been increasing in many areas along the Wasatch Front in excess of 20 percent in 2006 when compared with 2005, are rising at a lower rate this year. Price gains in Salt Lake County (read the remaining on http://www.sltrib.com/ci_7253946?source=email)
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
MMG Update - Tuesday, October 2, 2007 10:36am ET
Current Trend Direction: Sideways
Risks favor: Floating
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $100.16, -6bp
Yesterday, Mortgage Bonds bounced off of support at the 200-day Moving Average and while prices did finish the day higher, the advance was stopped at the 25-day MA resistance level. This morning, Mortgage Bonds are trading slightly lower and are now directly between these moving averages.
Stocks are trying to find some direction today after the Dow closed at an all-time high yesterday and above the 14,000 level. Should Stocks continue to move higher, it may be at the expense of Bonds, but it is not likely Bond prices will fall below the 200-day Moving Average in advance of Friday's important Jobs Report.
Housing news - the Pending Home Sales Index for August reported a -6.5% drop in sales, which was lower than expectations of a -2.0% drop in sales, but not nearly as bad as July’s dismal showing of a -10.7%. The Pending Home Sales Index is reported by the National Association of Realtors as a leading indicator of existing home sales. Mortgage Bonds ticked slightly higher on the weak news.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard “Loose Lips” Fisher is scheduled to speak in Dallas , Texas at 1:35pm ET. A Q&A session is expected to follow the speech so bond traders will be listening closely as Mr. Fisher has been known to rifle off remarks that could impact the market.
Mortgage Bonds continue to trade above the 200-day Moving Average and we will continue to float as long as prices remain above this floor.
Current Trend Direction: Sideways
Risks favor: Floating
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $100.16, -6bp
Yesterday, Mortgage Bonds bounced off of support at the 200-day Moving Average and while prices did finish the day higher, the advance was stopped at the 25-day MA resistance level. This morning, Mortgage Bonds are trading slightly lower and are now directly between these moving averages.
Stocks are trying to find some direction today after the Dow closed at an all-time high yesterday and above the 14,000 level. Should Stocks continue to move higher, it may be at the expense of Bonds, but it is not likely Bond prices will fall below the 200-day Moving Average in advance of Friday's important Jobs Report.
Housing news - the Pending Home Sales Index for August reported a -6.5% drop in sales, which was lower than expectations of a -2.0% drop in sales, but not nearly as bad as July’s dismal showing of a -10.7%. The Pending Home Sales Index is reported by the National Association of Realtors as a leading indicator of existing home sales. Mortgage Bonds ticked slightly higher on the weak news.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard “Loose Lips” Fisher is scheduled to speak in Dallas , Texas at 1:35pm ET. A Q&A session is expected to follow the speech so bond traders will be listening closely as Mr. Fisher has been known to rifle off remarks that could impact the market.
Mortgage Bonds continue to trade above the 200-day Moving Average and we will continue to float as long as prices remain above this floor.
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