WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve, trying to stabilize a shaky U.S. financial system, may give squeezed Wall Street firms more time to tap the central bank's emergency loan program, chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.
And, in an effort to prevent a repeat of the current mortgage mess, Bernanke said the Fed next week will issue new rules aimed at protecting future homebuyers from dubious lending practices.
The rules will crack down on a range of shady lending practices that has burned many of the nation's riskiest "subprime" borrowers — those with spotty credit or low incomes — who were hardest hit by the housing and credit debacles. The plan would apply to new loans made by thousands of lenders of all types, including banks and brokers.
It would restrict lenders from penalizing risky borrowers who pay loans off early, require lenders to make sure these borrowers set aside money to pay for taxes and insurance and bar lenders from making loans without proof of a borrower's income. It also would prohibit lenders from engaging in a pattern or practice of lending without considering a borrower's ability to repay a home loan from sources other than the home's value.
In an extraordinary action, the Fed in March agreed to let investment houses go to the Fed — on a temporary basis — for a quick, overnight source of cash. Those loan privileges, which are supposed to last through mid-September, are similar to those permanently afforded to commercial banks for years.
"We are currently monitoring developments in financial markets closely and considering several options, including extending the duration of our facilities for primary dealers beyond year-end should the current unusual and exigent circumstances continue to prevail in dealer funding markets," Bernanke said in prepared remarks to a mortgage-lending forum in Arlington, Va.
The Fed's decision to act — temporarily at least — as a lender of last resort for Wall Street firms was made after a run on Bear Stearns pushed the investment bank to the brink of bankruptcy and raised fears that others might be in jeopardy. It was the broadest use of the Fed's lending powers since the 1930s.
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Marina Vialtsina
Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Friday, May 2, 2008
Why the Fed's not done cutting rates---What is happening with a market?
The market is past its panic phase, but a grinding slowdown may soon put Bernanke back into easing mode.
By Colin Barr, senior writer
The market is eager to see Ben Bernanke heading for the sidelines. But with the U.S. economy softening, he may not stay there for long.
The Federal Open Market Committee is due to conclude a two-day policy meeting Wednesday afternoon. Trading in futures markets predicts the Fed will cut its key fed funds overnight lending target by a quarter-point, to 2%, and hold the line there in coming months. If the markets are right, the Fed is ready to go on hold for the first time since it began cutting rates last summer in response to troubles in the credit markets. The shift wouldn't come a moment too soon for some observers.
"Lower fed funds?" wrote Bill Gross, managing director at bond investor Pimco in Newport Beach, Calif., in his May investment outlook. "They would, in Pimco's opinion, likely do more damage than good from this point forward." Gross wrote Tuesday it's imperative that the Fed hold rates steady because "foreign and domestic investors are being fleeced with negative real interest rates, and the weak dollar, stratospheric commodity prices and steadily rising import inflation are the result."
But while surging food and energy prices have stolen the headlines this month, some observers believe falling house prices will force a substantial consumer retrenchment that could turn the Fed's attention back to economic growth. So while the Fed will surely be eager to show Wednesday that it hasn't forgotten that inflation is a concern, it could find itself cutting rates again later this year.
"The Fed is very likely going to find a way to signal a wait-and-see approach," Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg wrote this week. "That should not, by the way, be confused with an end-of-the-cycle approach."
For now, a pause in Fed action would be a welcome development after months of unrest. In addition to cutting the fed funds rate from 5.25% back in September, the Fed has expanded the scope of emergency loan programs to keep financial institutions lending to consumers and businesses. Since last month's Fed-brokered rescue of Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500), fears of a default at rival brokerages such as Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) and Lehman Brothers (LEH, Fortune 500) have fallen sharply, judging by trading in the firms' credit default swaps.
But if Bernanke's policies have succeeded in easing the market's liquidity problems, signs of a slowdown in the United States economy have only become more pronounced. Rosenberg points to steep declines in home sales, retail sales and consumer confidence over the past three months. Merrill Lynch now expects second-quarter gross domestic product to fall 2.3% from a year ago, in the first quarterly contraction of U.S. economic output since the 1990 recession.
Rosenberg, who has been saying the Fed will cut its target rate as low as 1% during this cycle, isn't the only one talking about a prolonged slowdown. Merrill chief John Thain made a similar point in the firm's first-quarter earnings call two weeks ago. He said the firm believes the worst of the capital markets dislocation is past, but that related problems could just be coming to light.
"I think the real risk going forward here is how much do all of the problems in the financial and credit markets seep into the real economy," Thain said. "What is the impact of higher energy prices, higher food prices, higher unemployment, and falling home prices on the consumer and what's the impact of that in terms of the U.S. economy and ultimately the global economy?"
More bad news on the home-price front came this week, when Standard & Poor's said prices in 20 major markets dropped an average of almost 13% from a year ago in February. "There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P. "Prices of single family homes continue to drop across the nation."
Falling house prices are likely to weigh on consumer spending, by preventing homeowners from funding consumption by tapping their home equity. That slowdown makes Dan Libby, a senior portfolio manager of the Sands Brothers Select Access Management fund, skeptical of the prospect that the economy will bounce back fast enough to permit the Fed to hold rates steady for long.
Libby said he believes Bernanke has staved off a deep recession and a market panic by acting as quickly as he did. But he said that he sees little sign that a strong recovery is at hand. While Libby said the Fed doesn't want to repeat its mistakes of the last cycle, when it left interest rates at very low levels even as economic growth picked up, he believes rates could fall to 1.5% before Bernanke & Co. are forced to confront a possible monetary tightening.
"I expect to see a slow, grinding muddling-through type of economy" for the next year or two, Libby said. He added that the Fed must "be careful about sounding too hawkish" when it issues its statement Wednesday laying out how it sees the risks confronting the economy.
That statement is what investors expect to be focusing on at 2:15 p.m. EST, when the Fed announces the results of today's meeting. "What is critical is what signal the Fed provides in the press statement," Rosenberg wrote this week, "and how much emphasis they put on inflation."
First Published: April 30, 2008: 3:42 AM EDT
By Colin Barr, senior writer
The market is eager to see Ben Bernanke heading for the sidelines. But with the U.S. economy softening, he may not stay there for long.
The Federal Open Market Committee is due to conclude a two-day policy meeting Wednesday afternoon. Trading in futures markets predicts the Fed will cut its key fed funds overnight lending target by a quarter-point, to 2%, and hold the line there in coming months. If the markets are right, the Fed is ready to go on hold for the first time since it began cutting rates last summer in response to troubles in the credit markets. The shift wouldn't come a moment too soon for some observers.
"Lower fed funds?" wrote Bill Gross, managing director at bond investor Pimco in Newport Beach, Calif., in his May investment outlook. "They would, in Pimco's opinion, likely do more damage than good from this point forward." Gross wrote Tuesday it's imperative that the Fed hold rates steady because "foreign and domestic investors are being fleeced with negative real interest rates, and the weak dollar, stratospheric commodity prices and steadily rising import inflation are the result."
But while surging food and energy prices have stolen the headlines this month, some observers believe falling house prices will force a substantial consumer retrenchment that could turn the Fed's attention back to economic growth. So while the Fed will surely be eager to show Wednesday that it hasn't forgotten that inflation is a concern, it could find itself cutting rates again later this year.
"The Fed is very likely going to find a way to signal a wait-and-see approach," Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg wrote this week. "That should not, by the way, be confused with an end-of-the-cycle approach."
For now, a pause in Fed action would be a welcome development after months of unrest. In addition to cutting the fed funds rate from 5.25% back in September, the Fed has expanded the scope of emergency loan programs to keep financial institutions lending to consumers and businesses. Since last month's Fed-brokered rescue of Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500), fears of a default at rival brokerages such as Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) and Lehman Brothers (LEH, Fortune 500) have fallen sharply, judging by trading in the firms' credit default swaps.
But if Bernanke's policies have succeeded in easing the market's liquidity problems, signs of a slowdown in the United States economy have only become more pronounced. Rosenberg points to steep declines in home sales, retail sales and consumer confidence over the past three months. Merrill Lynch now expects second-quarter gross domestic product to fall 2.3% from a year ago, in the first quarterly contraction of U.S. economic output since the 1990 recession.
Rosenberg, who has been saying the Fed will cut its target rate as low as 1% during this cycle, isn't the only one talking about a prolonged slowdown. Merrill chief John Thain made a similar point in the firm's first-quarter earnings call two weeks ago. He said the firm believes the worst of the capital markets dislocation is past, but that related problems could just be coming to light.
"I think the real risk going forward here is how much do all of the problems in the financial and credit markets seep into the real economy," Thain said. "What is the impact of higher energy prices, higher food prices, higher unemployment, and falling home prices on the consumer and what's the impact of that in terms of the U.S. economy and ultimately the global economy?"
More bad news on the home-price front came this week, when Standard & Poor's said prices in 20 major markets dropped an average of almost 13% from a year ago in February. "There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P. "Prices of single family homes continue to drop across the nation."
Falling house prices are likely to weigh on consumer spending, by preventing homeowners from funding consumption by tapping their home equity. That slowdown makes Dan Libby, a senior portfolio manager of the Sands Brothers Select Access Management fund, skeptical of the prospect that the economy will bounce back fast enough to permit the Fed to hold rates steady for long.
Libby said he believes Bernanke has staved off a deep recession and a market panic by acting as quickly as he did. But he said that he sees little sign that a strong recovery is at hand. While Libby said the Fed doesn't want to repeat its mistakes of the last cycle, when it left interest rates at very low levels even as economic growth picked up, he believes rates could fall to 1.5% before Bernanke & Co. are forced to confront a possible monetary tightening.
"I expect to see a slow, grinding muddling-through type of economy" for the next year or two, Libby said. He added that the Fed must "be careful about sounding too hawkish" when it issues its statement Wednesday laying out how it sees the risks confronting the economy.
That statement is what investors expect to be focusing on at 2:15 p.m. EST, when the Fed announces the results of today's meeting. "What is critical is what signal the Fed provides in the press statement," Rosenberg wrote this week, "and how much emphasis they put on inflation."
First Published: April 30, 2008: 3:42 AM EDT
Monday, April 21, 2008
I am back: Purchase Price in Real Estate Purchase Contract
I am back from Moab. Our friends had a reception in Wilderness House. Amazing view. Take a look at my picture.
Going back to business, and continue the discussion about one of the most important real estate document-Real Estate Purchase Agreement.
What is Purchase Price? If I represent buyers, I always recommend and do House Comparison before we submit our offer.
Keep also in mind that purchase price may be only one of few money terms in the agreement. Buyers may ask Seller to pay their closing costs. Buyers may ask for some repairs to be completed even before the inspection is done...In other words, if I represent Seller, I recommend patiently review the whole offer before making the decision if the offer is good or not.
For seller, it may be important Method of buyers Payment....you would think why? Seller will be paid cash after closing and recording anyway...the answer is time...b. If Buyer is applying for conventional mortgage for instance, seller is at assumed risk that buyer either would not get qualification, something can change in buyer's financial ability and the process usually takes about 30 days (that is why houses are usually under contract for about 30 days), some other mortgage make take only several days especially if buyer is already pre-qualified, if the buyer has cash, the closing can happen very quickly, and seller will get money probably within 2-3 days...
Tomorrow...I will review which closing costs buyer and seller usually pays...
EM (Earnest Money)+Loan+Balance in Cash=Offering Price
The right or obligation to do appraisal depends on Financing Condition
If Buyer applies for mortgage, the bank will require to do the appraisal. In my practice, I saw only once when bank waived its right (buyer had very large downpayment). Otherwise, buyer must agree to do the appraisal...It is buyer's obligation...
The Buyer may have a right to choose or not to choose to do the appraisal only if the buyer is a cash buyer.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Risk vs. Reward: How Bonds Behave
Even though BONDS have a reputation as conservative investments, it doesn't mean they're always safe. Any time you lend money, after all, you run the risk it won't be paid back. Companies, cities and counties occasionally In fact, economists label the yield of the shortest-term U.S. bonds "the risk-free rate of return."
Paradoxically, another source of risk for certain bonds is that your loan may be paid back early, or "called." This is known as prepayment risk. While it's certainly better than not being paid back at all, it forces you to find another, possibly less lucrative, place to put your money. When you buy a bond, the prospectus will indicate whether a bond is callable and give you a "yield-to-call" figure. If you have a choice, buy a bond without the call option.
Inflation By far, the greatest danger for a buy-and-hold bond investor is a rising inflation rate. Nothing spooks bond traders more than cheerful headlines about full employment or strong economic growth. When the economic news is good, the bond markets often take it as a bad sign -- a harbinger of an impending period of slowly rising consumer prices. The hotter the economy, the worse the threat. And the more downward pressure on bond prices.
Why is inflation such a problem for bondholders? Think about it this way: Rising prices make today's dollars worth less in the future than they're worth today. Since a bond can lock up your money for as long as 30 years, a rising rate of inflation can have a particularly corrosive effect.
All this explains why bond traders live in a hall of mirrors. What you or I might consider good news, they often consider bad. The bond market itself is a minute-by-minute referendum on the threat of inflation. If the threat is high, prices fall and yields -- or interest rates -- rise. This is often an excellent time to buy bonds. But if you own them already, you're stuck.
Yield vs. RiskInflation risk, credit risk and prepayment risk are all figured into the pricing of bonds. The more risk, the higher the yield. It's also true that investors demand higher yields for longer maturities. The reason for that is obvious -- given enough time, a once-healthy corporation can go bankrupt and suddenly lose the ability to pay its obligations. Inflation could run rampant, seriously eroding the purchasing power of that $1,000 you're supposed to get back in 30 years. These things are unlikely or you'd never invest in the first place. But the longer you tie your money up in a bond, the more at-risk it is statistically.
The credit quality of companies and governments is closely monitored by the two major debt-rating agencies; Standard & Poor's and Moody's. They assign credit ratings based on the entity's perceived ability to pay its debts over time. Those ratings -- expressed as letters (Aaa, Aa, A, etc.) -- help determine the interest rate that a company or government has to pay when it issues bonds. The market determines the price -- and thus the yield -- after that.
Paradoxically, another source of risk for certain bonds is that your loan may be paid back early, or "called." This is known as prepayment risk. While it's certainly better than not being paid back at all, it forces you to find another, possibly less lucrative, place to put your money. When you buy a bond, the prospectus will indicate whether a bond is callable and give you a "yield-to-call" figure. If you have a choice, buy a bond without the call option.
Inflation By far, the greatest danger for a buy-and-hold bond investor is a rising inflation rate. Nothing spooks bond traders more than cheerful headlines about full employment or strong economic growth. When the economic news is good, the bond markets often take it as a bad sign -- a harbinger of an impending period of slowly rising consumer prices. The hotter the economy, the worse the threat. And the more downward pressure on bond prices.
Why is inflation such a problem for bondholders? Think about it this way: Rising prices make today's dollars worth less in the future than they're worth today. Since a bond can lock up your money for as long as 30 years, a rising rate of inflation can have a particularly corrosive effect.
All this explains why bond traders live in a hall of mirrors. What you or I might consider good news, they often consider bad. The bond market itself is a minute-by-minute referendum on the threat of inflation. If the threat is high, prices fall and yields -- or interest rates -- rise. This is often an excellent time to buy bonds. But if you own them already, you're stuck.
Yield vs. RiskInflation risk, credit risk and prepayment risk are all figured into the pricing of bonds. The more risk, the higher the yield. It's also true that investors demand higher yields for longer maturities. The reason for that is obvious -- given enough time, a once-healthy corporation can go bankrupt and suddenly lose the ability to pay its obligations. Inflation could run rampant, seriously eroding the purchasing power of that $1,000 you're supposed to get back in 30 years. These things are unlikely or you'd never invest in the first place. But the longer you tie your money up in a bond, the more at-risk it is statistically.
The credit quality of companies and governments is closely monitored by the two major debt-rating agencies; Standard & Poor's and Moody's. They assign credit ratings based on the entity's perceived ability to pay its debts over time. Those ratings -- expressed as letters (Aaa, Aa, A, etc.) -- help determine the interest rate that a company or government has to pay when it issues bonds. The market determines the price -- and thus the yield -- after that.
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