Deflation is when prices drop, mainly due to decreases in money supply and credit. And we are sure seeing problems with available credit right now. And with the economy slowing down, we are hearing some people say we are in for a deflationary recession. In a deflationary environment, investors flee into fixed instruments like Bonds because the fixed payment received would actually buy them more goods and services over time.
For those of you in the business a few years, you may recall back in the Spring of 2003, when Alan Greenspan uttered the "D" word. Mortgage Bonds rallied 400bp in a couple weeks, setting off an unprecedented refi-boom. Things are quite different right now, but stay tuned, should more investors wake up to the value of Mortgage Bonds, we could again see a significant improvement in prices. Get your clients informed and ready - all refi-runs have a limited timeframe. And this time will certainly be more challenging as there are fewer programs with stricter guidelines, but the biggest hurdle will be appraised values. Now would be an excellent time to run some filters on your database and see who would best be able to benefit from the window of opportunity when it hits.
801-649-5883
.jpg)
Marina Vialtsina
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Friday, September 5, 2008
Economic Commentary
We are going to have to pay the price…
Eventually we are going to have to pay the price. The government has reported that our monthly budget deficit was over $100 billion in July. Projections show that we could easily exceed a $500 billion deficit for this fiscal year. What caused these exploding deficits? There are too many factors to even count on one hand–but economic stimulus payments, rescuing financial institutions and fighting a war while the economy slows down are all part of the equation. Why is the government borrowing so much even important? When the government borrows it increases general demand for funds. Essentially, the government is competing against us when we are borrowing to purchase a home. This forces interest rates higher.
The long-term result of big deficits is higher interest rates. However, we need lower rates desperately right now to help the real estate market and thus the economy to recover. It is another catch-22. Higher rates make the deficit worse because the government pays more on the debt. Higher rates also slow down the economy. And that in turn makes the deficit worse. Therefore, the Federal Reserve Board knows we need lower rates to help the economy. Low rates in the face of large deficits can cause inflation to increase and the latest consumer price numbers show that we are indeed in danger of inflation running out of control. This is why the recent drop in oil prices is such good news. The message? We need to find a way to get the budget under control so that we have room to let the economy recover–without the strong medicine of higher rates. Our slow economy will force the President and Congress to consider more economic stimulus payments. Perhaps they should resist the temptation.
Eventually we are going to have to pay the price. The government has reported that our monthly budget deficit was over $100 billion in July. Projections show that we could easily exceed a $500 billion deficit for this fiscal year. What caused these exploding deficits? There are too many factors to even count on one hand–but economic stimulus payments, rescuing financial institutions and fighting a war while the economy slows down are all part of the equation. Why is the government borrowing so much even important? When the government borrows it increases general demand for funds. Essentially, the government is competing against us when we are borrowing to purchase a home. This forces interest rates higher.
The long-term result of big deficits is higher interest rates. However, we need lower rates desperately right now to help the real estate market and thus the economy to recover. It is another catch-22. Higher rates make the deficit worse because the government pays more on the debt. Higher rates also slow down the economy. And that in turn makes the deficit worse. Therefore, the Federal Reserve Board knows we need lower rates to help the economy. Low rates in the face of large deficits can cause inflation to increase and the latest consumer price numbers show that we are indeed in danger of inflation running out of control. This is why the recent drop in oil prices is such good news. The message? We need to find a way to get the budget under control so that we have room to let the economy recover–without the strong medicine of higher rates. Our slow economy will force the President and Congress to consider more economic stimulus payments. Perhaps they should resist the temptation.
Friday, July 25, 2008
30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall to 6.42%
Daily Real Estate News | July 17, 2008
30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall to 6.42%
Mortgage rates continued the retreat in the latest week, with the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 6.42 percent.
According to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey of large lenders, the average 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.45 discount and origination points.
Bankrate's national weekly mortgage survey is conducted each Wednesday from data provided by the top 10 banks and thrifts in the top 10 markets.
The average 15-year fixed rate mortgage popular for refinancing declined to 5.95 percent, while the average jumbo 30-year fixed rate held steady at 7.64 percent. Adjustable mortgage rates were mixed, with the average 1-year ARM rising to 6.21 percent and the average 5/1 ARM holding at 6.05 percent.
Mounting worries about the economy and the health of the financial system drew investors out of stocks and into the relative safety of bonds. Mortgage rates are closely related to yields on risk-free Treasury notes.
Amid the nervousness, mortgage rates touched lows not seen since the first week of June. But inflation remains an issue, as evidenced by the Consumer Price Index for June, and will continue to spar with weak economic growth as the factors influence the direction of mortgage rates. The up and down yo-yo of mortgage rates seems likely to continue, with rates fluctuating within a range.
Mortgage rates have been on a wild ride since the beginning of the year. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was as low as 5.57 percent in January, meaning that a $200,000 loan would have carried a monthly payment of $1,144.38. But at today's rate of 6.42 percent, a $200,000 loan would mean a monthly payment of $1,253.63.
Summary of survey results:
30-year fixed: 6.42%, down from 6.48% last week (avg. points: 0.45)
15-year fixed: 5.95%, down from 6.01% last week (avg. points: 0.41)
5/1 ARM: 6.05%, unchanged from last week (avg. points: 0.37)
Source: Bankrate.com
30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall to 6.42%
Mortgage rates continued the retreat in the latest week, with the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 6.42 percent.
According to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey of large lenders, the average 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.45 discount and origination points.
Bankrate's national weekly mortgage survey is conducted each Wednesday from data provided by the top 10 banks and thrifts in the top 10 markets.
The average 15-year fixed rate mortgage popular for refinancing declined to 5.95 percent, while the average jumbo 30-year fixed rate held steady at 7.64 percent. Adjustable mortgage rates were mixed, with the average 1-year ARM rising to 6.21 percent and the average 5/1 ARM holding at 6.05 percent.
Mounting worries about the economy and the health of the financial system drew investors out of stocks and into the relative safety of bonds. Mortgage rates are closely related to yields on risk-free Treasury notes.
Amid the nervousness, mortgage rates touched lows not seen since the first week of June. But inflation remains an issue, as evidenced by the Consumer Price Index for June, and will continue to spar with weak economic growth as the factors influence the direction of mortgage rates. The up and down yo-yo of mortgage rates seems likely to continue, with rates fluctuating within a range.
Mortgage rates have been on a wild ride since the beginning of the year. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was as low as 5.57 percent in January, meaning that a $200,000 loan would have carried a monthly payment of $1,144.38. But at today's rate of 6.42 percent, a $200,000 loan would mean a monthly payment of $1,253.63.
Summary of survey results:
30-year fixed: 6.42%, down from 6.48% last week (avg. points: 0.45)
15-year fixed: 5.95%, down from 6.01% last week (avg. points: 0.41)
5/1 ARM: 6.05%, unchanged from last week (avg. points: 0.37)
Source: Bankrate.com
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Market Update
MMG Update - Friday, June 27, 2008 10:59am ET
Current Trend Direction: Sideways
Risks Favor: Cautiously Floating
Current Price of FNMA 6% Bond: $100.59, +19bp
On the heels of the Fed decision to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged, their favored gauge of inflation arrived this morning, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) reading. The Core PCE rose 0.1% during May, lower than expectations of 0.2% - which left the closely watched year-over-year Core inflation rate at 2.1%. This is outside the Fed's desired range of 1 - 2%, but tolerable in light of the ongoing inflation fears...which has to come as a relief to the Fed.
Also embedded in the PCE report are readings on Personal Income and Spending, which both grew at rates larger than estimates in May. The boost in spending was likely due to the stimulus checks that were sent out to many American taxpayers in the beginning of May.
Oil hit a record high of $142.26 this morning and the inflationary fears inherent in rising oil prices are keeping a lid on both Stocks and Bonds. Stocks have been downright ugly, as the Dow is poised for the worst June since the Great Depression. But at the same time, Mortgage Bonds haven't performed well either...inflation is bad news for both Stocks and Bonds.
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index fell to 56.4 in June, from 59.6 in May. It's the lowest since 1980 and the third-lowest reading in the 56-year history of the survey. Mortgage Bonds are being helped by this poor economic news.
The ceiling of resistance at $100.47 is being tested again, but has been difficult to break of late. This gives us extra reason for a cautious approach this morning, as we want to see if prices can break above this barrier...but also must remain on guard, because a reversal from this level leaves a long way down before the next floor of support. Take a look at the Bond Page, and you can see how Bond prices have been unable to overcome the $100.47 ceiling, even in the face of a nearly 400 point decline in the Stock market yesterday, which should have pushed some money over into Bonds. We can carefully Float for now, but be ready to Lock as this formidable level of resistance could push prices lower still.
Current Trend Direction: Sideways
Risks Favor: Cautiously Floating
Current Price of FNMA 6% Bond: $100.59, +19bp
On the heels of the Fed decision to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged, their favored gauge of inflation arrived this morning, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) reading. The Core PCE rose 0.1% during May, lower than expectations of 0.2% - which left the closely watched year-over-year Core inflation rate at 2.1%. This is outside the Fed's desired range of 1 - 2%, but tolerable in light of the ongoing inflation fears...which has to come as a relief to the Fed.
Also embedded in the PCE report are readings on Personal Income and Spending, which both grew at rates larger than estimates in May. The boost in spending was likely due to the stimulus checks that were sent out to many American taxpayers in the beginning of May.
Oil hit a record high of $142.26 this morning and the inflationary fears inherent in rising oil prices are keeping a lid on both Stocks and Bonds. Stocks have been downright ugly, as the Dow is poised for the worst June since the Great Depression. But at the same time, Mortgage Bonds haven't performed well either...inflation is bad news for both Stocks and Bonds.
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index fell to 56.4 in June, from 59.6 in May. It's the lowest since 1980 and the third-lowest reading in the 56-year history of the survey. Mortgage Bonds are being helped by this poor economic news.
The ceiling of resistance at $100.47 is being tested again, but has been difficult to break of late. This gives us extra reason for a cautious approach this morning, as we want to see if prices can break above this barrier...but also must remain on guard, because a reversal from this level leaves a long way down before the next floor of support. Take a look at the Bond Page, and you can see how Bond prices have been unable to overcome the $100.47 ceiling, even in the face of a nearly 400 point decline in the Stock market yesterday, which should have pushed some money over into Bonds. We can carefully Float for now, but be ready to Lock as this formidable level of resistance could push prices lower still.
Sunday, June 1, 2008
30-Year Rates Climb Past 6%
Freddie Mac reports a jump in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.08 percent during the week ended May 29 from 5.98 percent the prior week, marking a two-month high triggered by investor concern over inflation.
The 15-year mortgage rate climbed to 5.66 percent from 5.55 percent over the same period, while the five-year adjustable rate rose slightly to 5.62 percent from 5.61 percent.
However, the one-year ARM slipped to 5.22 percent from 5.24 percent.
In the event of worsening inflationary pressures, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher says, "I would expect a change of course in monetary policy to occur sooner rather than later, even in the face of an anemic [economy]."
Source: San Francisco Chronicle (05/30/08)
The 15-year mortgage rate climbed to 5.66 percent from 5.55 percent over the same period, while the five-year adjustable rate rose slightly to 5.62 percent from 5.61 percent.
However, the one-year ARM slipped to 5.22 percent from 5.24 percent.
In the event of worsening inflationary pressures, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher says, "I would expect a change of course in monetary policy to occur sooner rather than later, even in the face of an anemic [economy]."
Source: San Francisco Chronicle (05/30/08)
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Mortgage Market Update - Oil hits a new high
MMG Update - Tuesday, May 6, 2008 9:14am ET
Current Trend Direction: Sideways
Risks favor: Floating
Current Price of FNMA 5.5% Bond: $100.59, +19bp
Bonds are moving higher this morning after bad news was released for Fannie Mae, the largest provider of US home financing. The company said it lost $2.19 Billion in the first quarter due to the current housing and credit crisis, which equates to a loss of $2.57 a share compared with a profit of 85 cents a year ago. And like Freddie Mac, the company plans to raise capital and cut its dividend. Stocks traded lower on the news, pushing money into Bonds and helping Bond pricing improve.
In other headlines, oil hit a new record high of $120.93 this morning. Oil prices have doubled over the past twelve months, pushing the average price at the pump to $3.60 a gallon. Goldman Sachs is forecasting that black gold could rise to $150-$200 a barrel in the next twelve months. If this plays out as they suggest, the inflationary effects of high oil prices could pressure Mortgage Bonds lower, causing home loan rates to move higher...so this will be a story to watch. In other words, it might be the time to buy now while rates are low. And, because of the inflation alone, we may see higher home prices.
For now, Bonds continue to ride a dual floor of support at the 50 and 100-day Moving Averages. We will continue to Float for now, and watch how the Bond behaves near this strong floor.
Current Trend Direction: Sideways
Risks favor: Floating
Current Price of FNMA 5.5% Bond: $100.59, +19bp
Bonds are moving higher this morning after bad news was released for Fannie Mae, the largest provider of US home financing. The company said it lost $2.19 Billion in the first quarter due to the current housing and credit crisis, which equates to a loss of $2.57 a share compared with a profit of 85 cents a year ago. And like Freddie Mac, the company plans to raise capital and cut its dividend. Stocks traded lower on the news, pushing money into Bonds and helping Bond pricing improve.
In other headlines, oil hit a new record high of $120.93 this morning. Oil prices have doubled over the past twelve months, pushing the average price at the pump to $3.60 a gallon. Goldman Sachs is forecasting that black gold could rise to $150-$200 a barrel in the next twelve months. If this plays out as they suggest, the inflationary effects of high oil prices could pressure Mortgage Bonds lower, causing home loan rates to move higher...so this will be a story to watch. In other words, it might be the time to buy now while rates are low. And, because of the inflation alone, we may see higher home prices.
For now, Bonds continue to ride a dual floor of support at the 50 and 100-day Moving Averages. We will continue to Float for now, and watch how the Bond behaves near this strong floor.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Why the Fed's not done cutting rates---What is happening with a market?
The market is past its panic phase, but a grinding slowdown may soon put Bernanke back into easing mode.
By Colin Barr, senior writer
The market is eager to see Ben Bernanke heading for the sidelines. But with the U.S. economy softening, he may not stay there for long.
The Federal Open Market Committee is due to conclude a two-day policy meeting Wednesday afternoon. Trading in futures markets predicts the Fed will cut its key fed funds overnight lending target by a quarter-point, to 2%, and hold the line there in coming months. If the markets are right, the Fed is ready to go on hold for the first time since it began cutting rates last summer in response to troubles in the credit markets. The shift wouldn't come a moment too soon for some observers.
"Lower fed funds?" wrote Bill Gross, managing director at bond investor Pimco in Newport Beach, Calif., in his May investment outlook. "They would, in Pimco's opinion, likely do more damage than good from this point forward." Gross wrote Tuesday it's imperative that the Fed hold rates steady because "foreign and domestic investors are being fleeced with negative real interest rates, and the weak dollar, stratospheric commodity prices and steadily rising import inflation are the result."
But while surging food and energy prices have stolen the headlines this month, some observers believe falling house prices will force a substantial consumer retrenchment that could turn the Fed's attention back to economic growth. So while the Fed will surely be eager to show Wednesday that it hasn't forgotten that inflation is a concern, it could find itself cutting rates again later this year.
"The Fed is very likely going to find a way to signal a wait-and-see approach," Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg wrote this week. "That should not, by the way, be confused with an end-of-the-cycle approach."
For now, a pause in Fed action would be a welcome development after months of unrest. In addition to cutting the fed funds rate from 5.25% back in September, the Fed has expanded the scope of emergency loan programs to keep financial institutions lending to consumers and businesses. Since last month's Fed-brokered rescue of Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500), fears of a default at rival brokerages such as Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) and Lehman Brothers (LEH, Fortune 500) have fallen sharply, judging by trading in the firms' credit default swaps.
But if Bernanke's policies have succeeded in easing the market's liquidity problems, signs of a slowdown in the United States economy have only become more pronounced. Rosenberg points to steep declines in home sales, retail sales and consumer confidence over the past three months. Merrill Lynch now expects second-quarter gross domestic product to fall 2.3% from a year ago, in the first quarterly contraction of U.S. economic output since the 1990 recession.
Rosenberg, who has been saying the Fed will cut its target rate as low as 1% during this cycle, isn't the only one talking about a prolonged slowdown. Merrill chief John Thain made a similar point in the firm's first-quarter earnings call two weeks ago. He said the firm believes the worst of the capital markets dislocation is past, but that related problems could just be coming to light.
"I think the real risk going forward here is how much do all of the problems in the financial and credit markets seep into the real economy," Thain said. "What is the impact of higher energy prices, higher food prices, higher unemployment, and falling home prices on the consumer and what's the impact of that in terms of the U.S. economy and ultimately the global economy?"
More bad news on the home-price front came this week, when Standard & Poor's said prices in 20 major markets dropped an average of almost 13% from a year ago in February. "There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P. "Prices of single family homes continue to drop across the nation."
Falling house prices are likely to weigh on consumer spending, by preventing homeowners from funding consumption by tapping their home equity. That slowdown makes Dan Libby, a senior portfolio manager of the Sands Brothers Select Access Management fund, skeptical of the prospect that the economy will bounce back fast enough to permit the Fed to hold rates steady for long.
Libby said he believes Bernanke has staved off a deep recession and a market panic by acting as quickly as he did. But he said that he sees little sign that a strong recovery is at hand. While Libby said the Fed doesn't want to repeat its mistakes of the last cycle, when it left interest rates at very low levels even as economic growth picked up, he believes rates could fall to 1.5% before Bernanke & Co. are forced to confront a possible monetary tightening.
"I expect to see a slow, grinding muddling-through type of economy" for the next year or two, Libby said. He added that the Fed must "be careful about sounding too hawkish" when it issues its statement Wednesday laying out how it sees the risks confronting the economy.
That statement is what investors expect to be focusing on at 2:15 p.m. EST, when the Fed announces the results of today's meeting. "What is critical is what signal the Fed provides in the press statement," Rosenberg wrote this week, "and how much emphasis they put on inflation."
First Published: April 30, 2008: 3:42 AM EDT
By Colin Barr, senior writer
The market is eager to see Ben Bernanke heading for the sidelines. But with the U.S. economy softening, he may not stay there for long.
The Federal Open Market Committee is due to conclude a two-day policy meeting Wednesday afternoon. Trading in futures markets predicts the Fed will cut its key fed funds overnight lending target by a quarter-point, to 2%, and hold the line there in coming months. If the markets are right, the Fed is ready to go on hold for the first time since it began cutting rates last summer in response to troubles in the credit markets. The shift wouldn't come a moment too soon for some observers.
"Lower fed funds?" wrote Bill Gross, managing director at bond investor Pimco in Newport Beach, Calif., in his May investment outlook. "They would, in Pimco's opinion, likely do more damage than good from this point forward." Gross wrote Tuesday it's imperative that the Fed hold rates steady because "foreign and domestic investors are being fleeced with negative real interest rates, and the weak dollar, stratospheric commodity prices and steadily rising import inflation are the result."
But while surging food and energy prices have stolen the headlines this month, some observers believe falling house prices will force a substantial consumer retrenchment that could turn the Fed's attention back to economic growth. So while the Fed will surely be eager to show Wednesday that it hasn't forgotten that inflation is a concern, it could find itself cutting rates again later this year.
"The Fed is very likely going to find a way to signal a wait-and-see approach," Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg wrote this week. "That should not, by the way, be confused with an end-of-the-cycle approach."
For now, a pause in Fed action would be a welcome development after months of unrest. In addition to cutting the fed funds rate from 5.25% back in September, the Fed has expanded the scope of emergency loan programs to keep financial institutions lending to consumers and businesses. Since last month's Fed-brokered rescue of Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500), fears of a default at rival brokerages such as Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) and Lehman Brothers (LEH, Fortune 500) have fallen sharply, judging by trading in the firms' credit default swaps.
But if Bernanke's policies have succeeded in easing the market's liquidity problems, signs of a slowdown in the United States economy have only become more pronounced. Rosenberg points to steep declines in home sales, retail sales and consumer confidence over the past three months. Merrill Lynch now expects second-quarter gross domestic product to fall 2.3% from a year ago, in the first quarterly contraction of U.S. economic output since the 1990 recession.
Rosenberg, who has been saying the Fed will cut its target rate as low as 1% during this cycle, isn't the only one talking about a prolonged slowdown. Merrill chief John Thain made a similar point in the firm's first-quarter earnings call two weeks ago. He said the firm believes the worst of the capital markets dislocation is past, but that related problems could just be coming to light.
"I think the real risk going forward here is how much do all of the problems in the financial and credit markets seep into the real economy," Thain said. "What is the impact of higher energy prices, higher food prices, higher unemployment, and falling home prices on the consumer and what's the impact of that in terms of the U.S. economy and ultimately the global economy?"
More bad news on the home-price front came this week, when Standard & Poor's said prices in 20 major markets dropped an average of almost 13% from a year ago in February. "There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P. "Prices of single family homes continue to drop across the nation."
Falling house prices are likely to weigh on consumer spending, by preventing homeowners from funding consumption by tapping their home equity. That slowdown makes Dan Libby, a senior portfolio manager of the Sands Brothers Select Access Management fund, skeptical of the prospect that the economy will bounce back fast enough to permit the Fed to hold rates steady for long.
Libby said he believes Bernanke has staved off a deep recession and a market panic by acting as quickly as he did. But he said that he sees little sign that a strong recovery is at hand. While Libby said the Fed doesn't want to repeat its mistakes of the last cycle, when it left interest rates at very low levels even as economic growth picked up, he believes rates could fall to 1.5% before Bernanke & Co. are forced to confront a possible monetary tightening.
"I expect to see a slow, grinding muddling-through type of economy" for the next year or two, Libby said. He added that the Fed must "be careful about sounding too hawkish" when it issues its statement Wednesday laying out how it sees the risks confronting the economy.
That statement is what investors expect to be focusing on at 2:15 p.m. EST, when the Fed announces the results of today's meeting. "What is critical is what signal the Fed provides in the press statement," Rosenberg wrote this week, "and how much emphasis they put on inflation."
First Published: April 30, 2008: 3:42 AM EDT
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
New Mail Price-Effective May 12
First-Class Mail letter (1 oz.) $0.42
First-Class Mail letter (2 oz.) $0.59
Postcard $0.27
First-Class Mail large
envelope (2 oz.) $1.00
Certified Mail $2.70
First-Class Mail International
to Canada and Mexico (1 oz.) $0.72
First-Class Mail International
to all other countries (1 oz.) $0.94
First-Class Mail letter (2 oz.) $0.59
Postcard $0.27
First-Class Mail large
envelope (2 oz.) $1.00
Certified Mail $2.70
First-Class Mail International
to Canada and Mexico (1 oz.) $0.72
First-Class Mail International
to all other countries (1 oz.) $0.94
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Quarter Rate Cut
Today's FOMC adjournment brought us the expected quarter point rate cut that was expected by many, but the post-meeting statement created concern about inflation. The Fed referenced the weak housing market as a contributing factor to the change in short-term interest rates, but also indicated that inflation remains an issue, particularly with the high energy and oil prices we are currently seeing.The move and comments leads many to believe that the Fed will not make another rate cut in the near future.
The stock markets have surprisingly reacted well to the news with the Dow up 131 points and the Nasdaq gaining 35 points. However, the bond market and mortgage rates have not faired so well. The bond market is currently down 23/32, which will likely revise this afternoon's mortgage rates higher by approximately .25 of a discount point from this morning's rates.
This morning's release of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revealed a 3.9% annual pace of economic growth, exceeding forecasts of a 3.1% rate. This means that economic activity was moderately stronger than expected. However, offsetting that was good news in the key inflation reading within the report. It showed a significantly lower reading than was expected, indicating inflationary pressures were well under control.
Also posted this morning was the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. It showed a 0.8% that was slightly lower than forecasts. This can also be taken as good news for bonds and mortgage pricing because it eases wage inflation concerns.
Now that the Fed meeting is behind us, we have to turn our attention to the remaining economic news of the week. There are a couple of high-impact reports still left to be posted that may significantly affect the markets and mortgage rates. September's Personal Income and Outlays report will be posted early tomorrow morning. This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see increases of 0.4% in income and 0.4% in outlays.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their Manufacturing Index for October late Thursday morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline from September's 52.0 reading. If we get a reading below 51.5, we should see mortgage rates drop tomorrow morning. On the other hand, a reading above 51.5, indicating manufacturing activity may be stronger than thought, could fuel a stock rally and drive mortgage rates higher.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....Float if my closing were taking place within 7 days...Float if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
The stock markets have surprisingly reacted well to the news with the Dow up 131 points and the Nasdaq gaining 35 points. However, the bond market and mortgage rates have not faired so well. The bond market is currently down 23/32, which will likely revise this afternoon's mortgage rates higher by approximately .25 of a discount point from this morning's rates.
This morning's release of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revealed a 3.9% annual pace of economic growth, exceeding forecasts of a 3.1% rate. This means that economic activity was moderately stronger than expected. However, offsetting that was good news in the key inflation reading within the report. It showed a significantly lower reading than was expected, indicating inflationary pressures were well under control.
Also posted this morning was the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. It showed a 0.8% that was slightly lower than forecasts. This can also be taken as good news for bonds and mortgage pricing because it eases wage inflation concerns.
Now that the Fed meeting is behind us, we have to turn our attention to the remaining economic news of the week. There are a couple of high-impact reports still left to be posted that may significantly affect the markets and mortgage rates. September's Personal Income and Outlays report will be posted early tomorrow morning. This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see increases of 0.4% in income and 0.4% in outlays.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their Manufacturing Index for October late Thursday morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a decline from September's 52.0 reading. If we get a reading below 51.5, we should see mortgage rates drop tomorrow morning. On the other hand, a reading above 51.5, indicating manufacturing activity may be stronger than thought, could fuel a stock rally and drive mortgage rates higher.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....Float if my closing were taking place within 7 days...Float if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Mortgage Commentary
This week is packed with economic releases and major events that will likely lead to a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing. There are seven reports scheduled for release along with another FOMC meeting. There is no relevant data scheduled for release today, but there is data being released every other day of the week.The first will be posted tomorrow morning with the release of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the month of October. This Conference Board index will be posted at 10:00 AM and gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is now expected to show a small decline from last month's 99.8 reading, indicating that consumers are a little less likely to make large purchases in the near future. As long as the reading doesn't exceed 99.5, we will likely see the bond market react favorably to this report. This data is watched closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.The second report of the week will be posted Wednesday morning with the release of the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is likely to have a major impact on the financial markets and mortgage pricing. There are three versions of this report, each a month apart. Wednesday's release is the first and usually has the biggest impact on the markets. Current forecasts call for an increase of approximately 3.1% in the GDP. I think we need to see a smaller increase for the bond market to rally and mortgage rates to drop. Just matching the estimate will probably bring a stock market rally and could cause mortgage rates to rise.The second report of the day Wednesday will be the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. Rapidly rising costs raises wage inflation concerns and may hurt bond prices. It is expected to show an increase in costs of 0.9%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.The week's FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting that begins tomorrow and adjourns Wednesday afternoon. It is expected to bring another rate cut to key short-term interest rates. Assuming this does happen, traders will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of the Fed's next move. While it is widely expected that the Fed will cuts rates at this meeting, there is a lot of different opinions of when the following cut will come, if at all. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM Wednesday, so look for quite a bit of volatility during afternoon hours.Overall, it is going to be a pretty active week for the bond market and mortgage rates. Wednesday's GDP report and Friday's Employment report are the single most important releases of the week. Wednesday will likely be the most important day with the GDP and FOMC meeting, but Friday's data can also lead to sizable changes in mortgage rates. I am expecting to see significant movement in rates this week, so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Shall you lock Interest Rate if you are purchasing a house?
Friday News: So far today, Bond prices remain relatively unchanged. Overall, they are still hovering near the important 200-day Moving Average, having touched it 12 of the past 16 trading days.
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation at the wholesale or producer level, was reported this morning and showed some inflation pressure. Bonds initially traded lower on the news, but have since improved higher.
Bonds continue to trade sideways, bouncing back and forth above the 200-day Moving Average. So for now, I will recommend floating, but I will be watching closely as the bond remains above a layer of support."
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation at the wholesale or producer level, was reported this morning and showed some inflation pressure. Bonds initially traded lower on the news, but have since improved higher.
Bonds continue to trade sideways, bouncing back and forth above the 200-day Moving Average. So for now, I will recommend floating, but I will be watching closely as the bond remains above a layer of support."
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)