Is the Worst Over? Analysts Have Mixed Views

Some analysts reacting to the news that home sales rose a healthy 3.1 percent in July compared to June say the increase predicts further improvement. Others are more pessimistic.

"We are not yet ready to call the current levels a bottom but clearly most of the declines are behind us," says Adam York, a Wachovia Corp. economist.

"The good news is the trough is behind us," says Harm Bandholz, a New York-based economist with UniCredit, but Bandholz warns that tighter lending standards and rising foreclosures will continue to put pressure on housing prices.

Real estate consultant John Burns, who advises large builders and investment firms, says he thinks supply and demand will remain out of whack until there is a 46 percent decline in the inventory of homes on the resale market.

Burns, who is president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, estimates that by 2010 the most stable markets will reach equilibrium and by 2011, the national market will move into better balance. Overall, he believes that it will take until 2014 for it to be business as usual.

Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Kelly Evans (08/26/2008) and Business Week, Amy Feldman (08/18/2008)

Weekly Interest Rate Overview

The Markets. Rates were relatively flat again in the past week with a slight downtrend. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending August 14, 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.52%, the same as the week before. The average for 15-year fixed fell slightly to 6.07%. The average for one-year adjustables decreased to 5.18% and five-year adjustables fell to 6.02%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 6.62%. "Rates held relatively steady for the second week in a row amid offsetting economic data releases," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "For instance, consumer credit grew by $14 billion in June, more than twice the market consensus, but retail sales were weaker in July. News was mixed for the housing market as well. Pending existing home sales unexpectedly rose in June, signaling a possible increase in home sales in July and August, according to the National Association of Realtors. Offsetting that information was the news that commercial banks tightened lending standards even more for prime, nontraditional and subprime mortgages in July according to the Federal Reserve, an action that may dampen further home sales activity going forward."