To determine where home prices are expected to rise most in the next couple of years, Forbes.com looked at projections for housing starts from the National Association of Home Builders and job-growth projections from Moody’s Economy.com.
Forbes identified cities that are likely to be vibrant markets because jobs are increasing and the housing market wasn’t overbuilt during the boom.
"The logic is pretty straightforward," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "People will spend as much on housing as their income will allow them. House prices are very closely tied to household income over the long run when you look at business cycles."
According to Forbes, these are the 10 cities where home prices are most likely to rise:
Albuquerque, N.M.
Charlotte, N.C.
San Antonio, Texas
Portland, Ore.
Austin, Texas
Salt Lake City, Utah
Colorado Springs, Colo.
Minneapolis
Atlanta
Oklahoma City
801-649-5883
.jpg)
Marina Vialtsina
Showing posts with label jobs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jobs. Show all posts
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Solid Fundamentals
Markets rise and markets fall. Utah is no exception. But as talk of a national recession intensifies, Utah keeps adding new jobs and new people.
In fact, by year-end 2007 Utah gained nearly 45,000 new jobs, a 3.6 % increase compared to 2006 and the highest job growth rate of all 50 states, according to Mark Knold, chief economist of the Utah Department of Worforce Services. The phenomenal job growth put Salt Lake City at the No. 1 spot in the nation for the "Best Cities for Jobs in 2008", according to Forbes Magazine. And the job growth has led to a surge in net migration-the number of people moving into a place minues the number of people moving out. As of July 1, 2007, Utah saw a net migration of $44,252 people. In addition, there was a record 53,953 births, resulting in the highest single year population increase in the state's history. Combined, new job growth and net migration establish the foundation of a strong real estate market. While many places are experiencing job losses, population declines and flat house-price appreciaiton, Utah's fundamental economic picture remains solid.
"I don't believe that Utah is subject to the bubble concerns that exist in other markets.", said Juliette Tennert, chief economist to Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. "Our demian home price right now is $206,000 compared to national home price of $220,000. We're well below the national mediam. Our housing demand is solidly rooted in populaiton increase as opposed to specualtion."
Since 1970, Utah has experienced four housing booms. The housing booms of 1971-1972, 1976-1978, 1994-1996, and 2004-2005 all had one common element-high rates of net migration, according to James Wood, director of the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business Research. As Utah's Echo Boom generation comes of age-those born in the late 1970s and early 1980s-new ouseholds formation is certain to keep demand for housing strong. Utah's Echo Boom generation is larger in numbers that that of the state's Baby Boomers,a phenomenon unique only to the state of Utah, according to Tennert.
Although Utah's houseing market has slowed a little, the issue has little to do wuth overbuilding, according to the 2008 Economic Report to the Governor. "There are plenty of consumers and mane more to come who are willing buyers of homes," the report noted. "Instead, the porblem is in the mortgage markets....that is the primary reason for the Utah's slowing housing market. They have severely restricted mortgage lending."
By Brian Kohler
SLBR Chief Executive Office
Contact for more information
Marina Vialtsina
801-649-5883
In fact, by year-end 2007 Utah gained nearly 45,000 new jobs, a 3.6 % increase compared to 2006 and the highest job growth rate of all 50 states, according to Mark Knold, chief economist of the Utah Department of Worforce Services. The phenomenal job growth put Salt Lake City at the No. 1 spot in the nation for the "Best Cities for Jobs in 2008", according to Forbes Magazine. And the job growth has led to a surge in net migration-the number of people moving into a place minues the number of people moving out. As of July 1, 2007, Utah saw a net migration of $44,252 people. In addition, there was a record 53,953 births, resulting in the highest single year population increase in the state's history. Combined, new job growth and net migration establish the foundation of a strong real estate market. While many places are experiencing job losses, population declines and flat house-price appreciaiton, Utah's fundamental economic picture remains solid.
"I don't believe that Utah is subject to the bubble concerns that exist in other markets.", said Juliette Tennert, chief economist to Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. "Our demian home price right now is $206,000 compared to national home price of $220,000. We're well below the national mediam. Our housing demand is solidly rooted in populaiton increase as opposed to specualtion."
Since 1970, Utah has experienced four housing booms. The housing booms of 1971-1972, 1976-1978, 1994-1996, and 2004-2005 all had one common element-high rates of net migration, according to James Wood, director of the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business Research. As Utah's Echo Boom generation comes of age-those born in the late 1970s and early 1980s-new ouseholds formation is certain to keep demand for housing strong. Utah's Echo Boom generation is larger in numbers that that of the state's Baby Boomers,a phenomenon unique only to the state of Utah, according to Tennert.
Although Utah's houseing market has slowed a little, the issue has little to do wuth overbuilding, according to the 2008 Economic Report to the Governor. "There are plenty of consumers and mane more to come who are willing buyers of homes," the report noted. "Instead, the porblem is in the mortgage markets....that is the primary reason for the Utah's slowing housing market. They have severely restricted mortgage lending."
By Brian Kohler
SLBR Chief Executive Office
Contact for more information
Marina Vialtsina
801-649-5883
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Best Cities For Jobs amd its effect on Real Estate Market
Best Cities For Jobs
By Matthew Kirdahy, Forbes.com
October 12, 2007
A mining community has struck gold -- with tech jobs.
Topping the latest ranking of out Best Cities for Jobs list is Salt Lake City. The Crossroads to the West, an economy that has been predominantly driven by the mining and steel industries, has developed into a service-based city and has become a tech sector hub for digerati migrating from Silicon Valley.
The city also had almost the lowest rate of unemployment in 2006, a tick behind Honolulu, and ranked 19th overall.
To compile the rankings for the Best Cities for Jobs list, we used five data points, weighted equally: unemployment rate, job growth, income growth, median household income and cost of living for full-year 2006 (only partial data is so far available for 2007). We measured the largest 100 metropolitan areas, as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau, and obtained the data from Moody's Economy.com.
It's important to note that this list doesn't weight for specifics like job composition or job stability, two significant characteristics that will appeal to any job seeker.
Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody.s Economy.com, said this ranking shows job market strength but acknowledged these limitations. "There's nothing directly about quality or stability of a job market [in the ranking]," Zandi said.
"Some years are more volatile. Boom years are followed by years that don't quite measure up. For most people, a market that is more stable is most desirable, and this analysis doesn't account for that," he said.
Raleigh, N.C., led the pack before the full 2006 data were available. (Forbes.com published a Best Cities For Jobs list in February.)
"They're both strong economies and very solid job markets," Zandi said of Salt Lake City, vs. Raleigh. "It's Yankees-Red Sox. What's the difference? There is no real fundamental reason why Salt Lake is now No. 1."
New to the top 10 are Tulsa, Okla.; Albuquerque, N.M.; Wichita, Kan.; and Oklahoma City for income growth. Las Vegas just missed the top 10 by a spot but showed the second-best job growth. In 2005, it was ranked No. 48.
San Jose, Calif., posted the most significant jump, from No. 91 in 2005 to No. 14 in 2006. The third-largest city in the Golden State has the highest median household income, at $87,869. According to the data, that figure is projected to increase to $92,048 by the end of 2007 and $94,209 in 2008. However, it's also the priciest city on the list in which to live.
Normally, one might expect the great metropolises of the U.S. to rank higher than they do. New York City, arguably the world's financial capital, is listed at No. 63, a substantial change from its 99 ranking in 2005. Job growth overall is expected to increase along with job growth in the Big Apple.
San Francisco is at No. 31, up from 86, while Washington, D.C., fell to 32 from No. 5 in 2005.
Raleigh, however, remained among the five best in the job growth category. Phoenix reigned at No. 1, largely because of housing development. Given the recent housing bust, it will most certainly be dethroned in that category. The same goes for Florida -- Orlando, Sarasota, Tampa and Fort Lauderdale won't be so prominent for 2007 considering the impact of the downtrodden housing market. The next list will be "almost upside down," Zandi said.
In Pictures: Best Cities For Jobs
By Matthew Kirdahy, Forbes.com
October 12, 2007
A mining community has struck gold -- with tech jobs.
Topping the latest ranking of out Best Cities for Jobs list is Salt Lake City. The Crossroads to the West, an economy that has been predominantly driven by the mining and steel industries, has developed into a service-based city and has become a tech sector hub for digerati migrating from Silicon Valley.
The city also had almost the lowest rate of unemployment in 2006, a tick behind Honolulu, and ranked 19th overall.
To compile the rankings for the Best Cities for Jobs list, we used five data points, weighted equally: unemployment rate, job growth, income growth, median household income and cost of living for full-year 2006 (only partial data is so far available for 2007). We measured the largest 100 metropolitan areas, as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau, and obtained the data from Moody's Economy.com.
It's important to note that this list doesn't weight for specifics like job composition or job stability, two significant characteristics that will appeal to any job seeker.
Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody.s Economy.com, said this ranking shows job market strength but acknowledged these limitations. "There's nothing directly about quality or stability of a job market [in the ranking]," Zandi said.
"Some years are more volatile. Boom years are followed by years that don't quite measure up. For most people, a market that is more stable is most desirable, and this analysis doesn't account for that," he said.
Raleigh, N.C., led the pack before the full 2006 data were available. (Forbes.com published a Best Cities For Jobs list in February.)
"They're both strong economies and very solid job markets," Zandi said of Salt Lake City, vs. Raleigh. "It's Yankees-Red Sox. What's the difference? There is no real fundamental reason why Salt Lake is now No. 1."
New to the top 10 are Tulsa, Okla.; Albuquerque, N.M.; Wichita, Kan.; and Oklahoma City for income growth. Las Vegas just missed the top 10 by a spot but showed the second-best job growth. In 2005, it was ranked No. 48.
San Jose, Calif., posted the most significant jump, from No. 91 in 2005 to No. 14 in 2006. The third-largest city in the Golden State has the highest median household income, at $87,869. According to the data, that figure is projected to increase to $92,048 by the end of 2007 and $94,209 in 2008. However, it's also the priciest city on the list in which to live.
Normally, one might expect the great metropolises of the U.S. to rank higher than they do. New York City, arguably the world's financial capital, is listed at No. 63, a substantial change from its 99 ranking in 2005. Job growth overall is expected to increase along with job growth in the Big Apple.
San Francisco is at No. 31, up from 86, while Washington, D.C., fell to 32 from No. 5 in 2005.
Raleigh, however, remained among the five best in the job growth category. Phoenix reigned at No. 1, largely because of housing development. Given the recent housing bust, it will most certainly be dethroned in that category. The same goes for Florida -- Orlando, Sarasota, Tampa and Fort Lauderdale won't be so prominent for 2007 considering the impact of the downtrodden housing market. The next list will be "almost upside down," Zandi said.
In Pictures: Best Cities For Jobs
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
It was a Fed day afternoon yersterday- now when you know what happened, see the thoughts before it happened..
It's a Fed day afternoon. And both the stock and bond markets will be reacting to the words and actions of the Fed at 2:15pm ET. Let's break down the important questions - Will it be a half or quarter point cut? And what will the Fed say about inflation?
Everyone seems to have an opinion. Some are saying the Fed should not hike because of inflationary fears and Dollar weakness. The weakness in the Dollar is assumed to be inflationary because it will cost more to buy imports.
Some say the the Fed is already late and needs to cut by 50bp to avoid a recession. Jobs are weak, inflation is tame, housing and mortgages are performing poorly.
Others, like us, think that we will get a 25bp cut - the first cut in four years. Additionally, the Fed will cite inflation as a concern but should acknowledge that it is presently contained. We see this as the best balance to slowly help the economy without being an inflation threat. The Fed should have a green light to cut because their favored inflation measure, The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) is under 2%. The result should be that stock traders will be disappointed, as they want a 50bp cut. Bond traders would rather see no cut to protect inflation, but will live with the 25bp.
Then there is good old Alan Greenspan. Appearing to have camera withdrawal, Mr. G is soaking up any media opportunity to pump his new book. His comments undermine the excellent job that Ben Bernanke has done. In contrast to Greenspan, Bernanke has been correctly patient and waited for the previous hikes to bring inflation down to the Fed's target zone. It would have been likely that Greenspan would have hiked much more aggressively, sending the country into a nasty recession, with Greenspan's only answer being another series of panic cuts, which would cause another bubble.
In the last bit of inflation news before the Fed meets to decide monetary policy, the Producer Price Index (PPI) “fell off a cliff” with a reading of -1.4% in August. Lower food (-0.2%) and energy (-6.6%) prices during the month led the unexpected decline in the Index. After excluding volatile food and energy prices, however, the Core Producer Price Index rose to a greater than expected 0.2% on higher drug and auto prices. Economists were predicting the PPI to fall to -0.3% and the Core PPI to rise by 0.1%. Overall, the PPI data is favorable.
Technically, bonds remain in a holding pattern trending above key support provided by the 200-day MA at $100.12
Everyone seems to have an opinion. Some are saying the Fed should not hike because of inflationary fears and Dollar weakness. The weakness in the Dollar is assumed to be inflationary because it will cost more to buy imports.
Some say the the Fed is already late and needs to cut by 50bp to avoid a recession. Jobs are weak, inflation is tame, housing and mortgages are performing poorly.
Others, like us, think that we will get a 25bp cut - the first cut in four years. Additionally, the Fed will cite inflation as a concern but should acknowledge that it is presently contained. We see this as the best balance to slowly help the economy without being an inflation threat. The Fed should have a green light to cut because their favored inflation measure, The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) is under 2%. The result should be that stock traders will be disappointed, as they want a 50bp cut. Bond traders would rather see no cut to protect inflation, but will live with the 25bp.
Then there is good old Alan Greenspan. Appearing to have camera withdrawal, Mr. G is soaking up any media opportunity to pump his new book. His comments undermine the excellent job that Ben Bernanke has done. In contrast to Greenspan, Bernanke has been correctly patient and waited for the previous hikes to bring inflation down to the Fed's target zone. It would have been likely that Greenspan would have hiked much more aggressively, sending the country into a nasty recession, with Greenspan's only answer being another series of panic cuts, which would cause another bubble.
In the last bit of inflation news before the Fed meets to decide monetary policy, the Producer Price Index (PPI) “fell off a cliff” with a reading of -1.4% in August. Lower food (-0.2%) and energy (-6.6%) prices during the month led the unexpected decline in the Index. After excluding volatile food and energy prices, however, the Core Producer Price Index rose to a greater than expected 0.2% on higher drug and auto prices. Economists were predicting the PPI to fall to -0.3% and the Core PPI to rise by 0.1%. Overall, the PPI data is favorable.
Technically, bonds remain in a holding pattern trending above key support provided by the 200-day MA at $100.12
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Current Trend Dorection: Sideways
MMG Update - Wednesday, September 5, 2007 9:49am ET
Current Trend Direction: Sideways
Risks favor: Cautiously Floating
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $99.84, +6bp
The ADP Employment Report came in showing private sector job growth of only 38,000 jobs during August, the smallest monthly total in four years. After factoring in government Job growth, the ADP data suggests this Friday’s official Jobs Report from the Labor Department will show Non-Farm payroll growth around 65,000 – far below the current consensus estimate of 123,000 new jobs.
Even though the ADP report has been a less than stellar indicator for the official Jobs number of late, Traders are listening to the report this morning and are pushing Bonds modestly higher.
Speaking of jobs, employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, announced today there was an 85% jump in corporate layoffs during August from July levels. Of no surprise to us in the mortgage business, the financial sector led the way with 35,752 layoffs from a total of 79,459. Mortgage and sub-prime lending companies took the brunt of the layoffs from the financial sector.
We will lay out our Jobs Report strategy in tomorrow's update, but we have been saying for some time we think the Jobs Report will come in lower than expectations. The recent spike in Initial Claims, the weak ADP and jump in corporate layoffs gives us more confidence that Friday's Jobs Report will indeed miss expectations.
At 2pm ET, the Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book” summarizing the current state of the economy will be released. This could be a potential market mover as Traders will sift through the document looking for any hints or clues from the Fed as to their next move.
Mortgage Bonds continue to trade sideways with a pending breakout on its way. If you take a peek at yesterday's update and chart you can see how the prices are being squeezed between a Falling Resistance Line and Rising Support Line. With prices now trading exactly between resistance at the 200-day Moving Average and support at the 100-day MA, we are going to cautiously float for today and devise our strategy heading into the Jobs Report tomorrow.
Current Trend Direction: Sideways
Risks favor: Cautiously Floating
Current Price of FNMA 6.0% Bond: $99.84, +6bp
The ADP Employment Report came in showing private sector job growth of only 38,000 jobs during August, the smallest monthly total in four years. After factoring in government Job growth, the ADP data suggests this Friday’s official Jobs Report from the Labor Department will show Non-Farm payroll growth around 65,000 – far below the current consensus estimate of 123,000 new jobs.
Even though the ADP report has been a less than stellar indicator for the official Jobs number of late, Traders are listening to the report this morning and are pushing Bonds modestly higher.
Speaking of jobs, employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, announced today there was an 85% jump in corporate layoffs during August from July levels. Of no surprise to us in the mortgage business, the financial sector led the way with 35,752 layoffs from a total of 79,459. Mortgage and sub-prime lending companies took the brunt of the layoffs from the financial sector.
We will lay out our Jobs Report strategy in tomorrow's update, but we have been saying for some time we think the Jobs Report will come in lower than expectations. The recent spike in Initial Claims, the weak ADP and jump in corporate layoffs gives us more confidence that Friday's Jobs Report will indeed miss expectations.
At 2pm ET, the Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book” summarizing the current state of the economy will be released. This could be a potential market mover as Traders will sift through the document looking for any hints or clues from the Fed as to their next move.
Mortgage Bonds continue to trade sideways with a pending breakout on its way. If you take a peek at yesterday's update and chart you can see how the prices are being squeezed between a Falling Resistance Line and Rising Support Line. With prices now trading exactly between resistance at the 200-day Moving Average and support at the 100-day MA, we are going to cautiously float for today and devise our strategy heading into the Jobs Report tomorrow.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)