This Is Not the Great Depression
Comparing the current crisis to the Great Depression is just plain wrong, say historians and veteran financial experts.
"The nomenclature of the word 'crisis' has cheapened," says Roy Smith, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and former partner at Goldman Sachs .
“The Great Depression had thousands of banks failing and people losing their life savings, 25 percent unemployment and social unrest and tent cities of the poor," says Allan Sloan, Washington Post and Fortune magazine columnist.
"With just 6 percent unemployment, we are having a debate as to whether we are even in a recession," says Richard Sylla, professor of the history of financial institutions and markets at New York University.
Source: Reuters News, Robert MacMillan (09/22/08)
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Marina Vialtsina
Showing posts with label employment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label employment. Show all posts
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Commercial Real Estate
NAR: Commercial Index Eases Commercial real estate market activity is expected to decline moderately with fewer business opportunities for commercial practitioners in the months ahead, according to a forward-looking index for the commercial real estate sectors published by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
The Commercial Leading Indicator for Brokerage Activity slipped 0.4 percent to an index of 120.1 in the fourth quarter from a reading of 120.6 in the third quarter. However, it remains 0.1 above the fourth quarter of 2006 when it stood at 119.9. This is the second straight quarterly dip in the index, after reaching a record of 120.7 in the second quarter of 2007.
The index showed nine consecutive quarterly gains prior to these declines; NAR’s track of the index dates back to 1990.Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the latest index suggests reduced business opportunities for commercial real estate practitioners in the months ahead. “The decline in the index implies that commercial activity, as measured by net absorption and the completion of new commercial buildings, is likely to contract moderately over the next six to nine months, which is consistent with an expectation for slower overall economic expansion in upcoming quarters,” Yun says.
Rising unemployment insurance claims and falling durable goods shipments were the key factors in lowering the CLI, but a weaker rate of return on investment as measured by the NAREIT Price Index was also a factor. However, positive contributors to the index were seen in the growth in wholesale and retail trade, and rising personal income, according to NAR.The latest data imply that investment in private nonresidential structures, which rose a solid 13.2 percent in 2007 according to a preliminary GDP estimate, could show only minimal growth or even decline in 2008, Yun says The Commercial Leading Indicator also implies weakening activity for commercial leasing and building sales activity. “Commercial practitioners can anticipate a weaker, though positive, net absorption in the office and industrial sectors later in the year with fewer new commercial buildings reaching the market,” Yun says. The index is a tool to assess market behavior in major commercial real estate sectors, which incorporates 13 variables that reflect future commercial real estate activity.
The Commercial Leading Indicator for Brokerage Activity slipped 0.4 percent to an index of 120.1 in the fourth quarter from a reading of 120.6 in the third quarter. However, it remains 0.1 above the fourth quarter of 2006 when it stood at 119.9. This is the second straight quarterly dip in the index, after reaching a record of 120.7 in the second quarter of 2007.
The index showed nine consecutive quarterly gains prior to these declines; NAR’s track of the index dates back to 1990.Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the latest index suggests reduced business opportunities for commercial real estate practitioners in the months ahead. “The decline in the index implies that commercial activity, as measured by net absorption and the completion of new commercial buildings, is likely to contract moderately over the next six to nine months, which is consistent with an expectation for slower overall economic expansion in upcoming quarters,” Yun says.
Rising unemployment insurance claims and falling durable goods shipments were the key factors in lowering the CLI, but a weaker rate of return on investment as measured by the NAREIT Price Index was also a factor. However, positive contributors to the index were seen in the growth in wholesale and retail trade, and rising personal income, according to NAR.The latest data imply that investment in private nonresidential structures, which rose a solid 13.2 percent in 2007 according to a preliminary GDP estimate, could show only minimal growth or even decline in 2008, Yun says The Commercial Leading Indicator also implies weakening activity for commercial leasing and building sales activity. “Commercial practitioners can anticipate a weaker, though positive, net absorption in the office and industrial sectors later in the year with fewer new commercial buildings reaching the market,” Yun says. The index is a tool to assess market behavior in major commercial real estate sectors, which incorporates 13 variables that reflect future commercial real estate activity.
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