Mixed Regional Results

There were differences in delinquency and foreclosure rates by state. While delinquency rates rose across the country from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2008, not all states experienced the same pattern.

The top five states with the highest quarter-over-quarter increase in delinquency rates were Delaware (104 basis points), Mississippi (103 basis points), Massachusetts (100 basis points), Maryland (96 basis points), and Indiana (92 basis points). On the flip side, the states with the smallest change in delinquency rates were South Dakota (20 basis points), North Dakota (27 basis points), Wyoming (32 basis points), Colorado (33 basis points), and Oregon (34 basis points).

In terms of foreclosure rates, the national numbers masked surprising quarter-over-quarter regional changes. The rate of foreclosure starts dropped in 12 states from the first to the second quarter of 2008. Massachusetts recorded the largest decline-33 basis points - followed by Maryland (a 9 basis point decline) and Mississippi (7 basis point decline). The other states with declines in foreclosure starts were Nebraska, Arkansas, Texas, South Dakota, Missouri, Colorado, Montana, Michigan, and Louisiana.

Meanwhile, foreclosure inventory rates also dropped in 17 states over the first two quarters of 2008. Wyoming posted the greatest drop-24 basis points - followed by Massachusetts (declining 21 basis points), and Mississippi (a decline of 20 basis points). Foreclosure inventory rates also declined in Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas.

These positive changes were nonetheless offset by foreclosure rate increases in states like Florida, Nevada, Arizona, California and New Jersey. These states experienced significant increases from the first to the second quarter of 2008, both in terms of foreclosure starts and foreclosure inventory rates. Florida posted the highest figures, with a 139 basis point jump in foreclosure inventory and a 35 basis point increase in foreclosure starts. The changes were similar in the other four states-Nevada (80 basis point change in inventory, 31 basis point change in starts), Arizona (68 basis point change in inventory, 29 basis point change in starts), California (73 basis point change in inventory, 23 basis point change in starts) and New Jersey (39 basis point change in inventory, 14 basis point change in starts).

Rental Hikes

Salt Lake City registered the largest apartment-rent increase in the nation, as rents have soared 10.4 percent since last year, according to a report this week.
The Provo/Orem area was a close second, with rents increasing 10.1 percent over the past 12 months, according to the report by RealFacts Inc. Among the four Western states that the report called the "desert" region of the country, Utah ranked second in average rents, at $799. Nevada was tops at $882, Arizona was third at $783 and New Mexico fourth, with average rents of $730.

Utah also registered the highest average occupancy rates for renters, at 95.3 percent, with New Mexico second at 93.9 percent, followed by Nevada at 92.7 percent and Arizona at 89.5 percent.

RealFacts, a company specializing in multifamily data, said that average rents across the nation increased by only 2.5 percent in the past year, and 0.6 percent since March.

Wells Fargo economist Kelly Matthews said Friday that rental rates in Utah are increasing because of the current housing situation.

"Everybody was moving out of rentals and getting mortgages and buying homes," he said. "That process has reversed now, and many people can't get mortgages or don't want to get into houses, so the demand for rentals is definitely stronger now."

http://deseretnews.com/article/1%2C5143%2C700244360%2C00.html

Fourth Quarter 2007 compared to Fourth Quarter 2006

Five markets which went down in its prices:

1. California -6.65%
2. Nevada- 5.86%
3. Florida- 4.69%
4. Michigan- 4.27%
5. Rhode Island
2.56%

Five markets which went up in its home prices:

1. Utah - 9.27%
2. Wyoming - 8.27%
3. North Dakota 7.87%
4. Montana - 6.90%
5. Alaska - 5.97%

End of the Week Market Projection

The “second” reading of GDP growth in the 4th quarter of last year was unchanged – a basically flat 0.6 percent growth rate. As we go forward, economic growth in the first half of this year will be essentially non-existent. But there is some light at the end of what many pundits view as a dark tunnel. By the second half of the year, the economy will expand at slightly higher than 2 percent. The 2008 fiscal stimulus package contains over $100 billion in tax rebates. Those checks should be in taxpayers’ mailboxes in early summer. This tax cut is more than twice as high as a similar rebate passed in 2001. Past research suggests that consumers’ propensity to spend out of those tax rebates is about 40 cents to 50 cents on the dollar. That translates into additional consumer spending of $60 to $80 billion in the second half of the year. Make no mistake – this stimulus is the key factor in helping move the economy in the second half of the year. Other Factors than Housing Involved in Economic Doldrums Seems like most people blame the housing downturn for our economic doldrums. But there are other factors. This tax rebate is needed to compensate for outrageously high oil prices and from falling stock market values. A $104 dollar per barrel oil price is a major drag on consumer spending – and something that virtually every consumer feels. Europeans are not paying as much because of their stronger currencies. The higher oil price, which is priced in U.S. dollars, is partly driven by the very weak dollar. The weaker dollar is caused in part by a higher inflation rate in the U.S. vis-à-vis the rest of the world’s advanced economies. If a currency is losing its purchasing power, why hold that currency? Recall, the oil price was under $20 per barrel just 10 years ago. When the price of oil rises, it is essentially a tax placed on consumers with less money available to spend on more enjoyable items and activities. This “oil tax” unfortunately does not even go into the U.S. Treasury. Rather it fills the coffers of the governments of Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Iran. In today’s world, it is a transfer of money from a democratic country to a non-democratic country. The housing market will also get some relief. A higher loan limit – up to $729,000 from $417,000 – in several local areas, including Los Angeles, Orange, and San Francisco counties, will have a big impact in bringing out the buyers. As a result, home sales in the second half of 2008 will no doubt be much stronger than in the first half. Look for existing-home sales to rise to a 5.7 million-unit pace in the second half versus 4.9 million in the first half.Pent-Up Demand Rising sales will also bring down inventory and help strengthen home prices. The national median price of an existing home will fall in the first half of the year and then rise in the second half. For the year as a whole, the median price will have fallen by 1 percent – after having fallen 1.4 percent last year. Of course, there will be tremendous local market variations. The Northeast region is likely to be first region to show signs of stabilizing and then strengthening housing market conditions. The West region will likely trail behind. The West region could, nonetheless, surprise us on the upside. What is unique about the current housing cycle is the pace of price declines in some local markets, which can significantly improve affordability conditions in a short time. Home prices are falling at or near a double-digit pace in California, Nevada, and Arizona. A sudden quick home price adjustment may be just the thing to quickly induce buyers back into these marketplaces. After all, as is the case in many parts of the country, jobs have been created in those Western states over the past two years even against the backdrop of a housing market slump, and hence, there exists significant pent-up demand. New home sales will take much longer to turn around. That is simply due to the fact that there are far fewer new homes being built. Single-family housing starts have fallen by more than 50 percent in the past two years. Based on housing permits – generally a reliable indicator of upcoming housing starts – new home construction will fall further for the remainder of the year. New home inventory has been trending down but more cutbacks are needed. Therefore, homebuilders need to further bite the bullet and hold back construction. Loan modifications and other foreclosure mitigation programs are all well intended and good, but the best policy assistance in our current market condition is to unleash the pent-up demand. Any measures that violate the sanctity of private contracts – such as permitting judges to reset interest rates – should be avoided as those can greatly harm home sales by raising the cost of borrowing on new loan originations. There is some discussion of a possible tax credit for first-time home buyers. Such a policy will be a great stabilizer for the housing market and the economy.

How New FHA, GSE Loan Limits Impact You

Few posts ago, I have mention that new limit is coming....so, now, when it is here, how is it impacting you?

Last week, President Bush signed into law a $152 billion economic stimulus bill that includes temporary increases in loan limits for the government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — and the Federal Housing Administration until Dec. 31. But what does this mean for you?

The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® launched a new resource Web page, http://www.realtor.org/gapublic.nsf/pages/economic_stimulus devoted to educating you about the new loan limits, which loans are eligible, and the implementation of these temporary limit increases.

NAR has developed estimates of the FHA and GSE single-family loan limits (http://www.realtor.org/GAPublic.nsf/files/new_loan_limits.pdf/$FILE/new_loan_limits.pdf) by state and county so that you can get a sense of how the loan limits will rise in your markets. As you can see, Nevada, for instance, is mentioned, but nothing was done for Las Vegas. However, Salt Lake City is there: FHA limit used to be $362,790, now it is $546,875 and same for GSE limit. Other effected Utah cities are Garfield, Grand, Iron, Juab, Kane, Millard, Morgan, Piute, Rich, San Juan, Sanpete, Sevier, Summit, Tooele (same before anf after numbers as SLC), Uitah, Utah, Wasatch, Washington, Wayne, Weber. As you see some cities are missing?

"The importance of immediately implementing the new limits cannot be overstated," said NAR President Richard Gaylord last week in a public statement. "Mortgage markets throughout the country need liquidity. Our research indicates that the increased FHA loan limits will help an additional 138,000 Americans achieve the dream of homeownership and will allow nearly 200,000 homeowners to refinance and potentially keep their homes.”

The FHA limit will increase to as much as $729,750 in high cost areas (to 125 percent of local median home prices). The GSE limit will jump to $729,750 for loans; currently Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans are capped at $417,000. So, when you hear and see these numbers, please know it is not about all of us.

Eligible loans from FHA include mortgages that were issued for credit approval on or before Dec. 31, 2008. GSE loans that are eligible include loans that originated after July 1, 2007 to Dec. 31, 2008.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development is required to publish the new mortgage limits by March 14; the limits will be effective for FHA immediately upon publication.
"This will be a major stimulus for the housing industry and for people who want to own a home,” Gaylord said.