Utah's Real Estate Market

Two recent real estate reports show Utah's real estate market is considerably weaker than a year ago, but home prices continue to appreciate. A report out yesterday on April's home sales in Salt Lake show a volume decline of 33%, but a price increase of 2%. This is reflective of other areas of the country that showed a decline ahead of us.

The Salt Lake Board of Realtors is optimistic about these numbers:

But Realtor officials said Tuesday they believe that any downturn here will be comparably shallow and short-lived.

Board president Jillinda Bowers said April was the third consecutive month in which home sales increased in the county. Last year, sales started to slip in the summer, with January's total of 634 an eight-year low for monthly sales. April's total of 972 units sold is up from 934 in March and 746 in February.

"It appears to be a trend" of increasing sales, Bowers said.

I disagree. Utah's housing market is having a downturn and will continue to do so for probably a year. Looking at month over month sales is a poor indicator of progress. However, demand for starter homes and low cost homes will continue to increase with commensurate price increases. Homes above $300k in the valley will have slight problems selling. Price points above $600,000 will see the greatest price drops, especially next year, the most difficult price to sell.

Even though the analysis may not sound good, what we should focus is:

1. the interest rate is still low
2. it is a good time to buy: you can negotiate concessions and possibly lower price
3. if you are buying the house for more than two years, you will be fine. And, in the meantime, your house is still appreciating
4. The rent market is strong and very competitive, definitely landlord's market
5. we are going through this economically difficult times better than other states.


Utah is No. 1 among states in home-price appreciation with a 5.6 percent increase, relinquishing the top spot to Wyoming, which posted a 6.3 percent gain, according to a report released today.

Montana rounded out the top 3 with a 4.9 percent increase, according to the House Price Index report by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

The OFHEO numbers reflect refinances as well as purchases and that's why they show bigger increases than the Board of Realtors that only reflect sales of existing homes. Realtor numbers showed less than 1% appreciation in the first quarter.

I don't expect a housing crash. It will slower than 2005 and 2006, little slower or same as 2007.

Believe it or not, Utah house market is best in the nation

For the scores of homeowners who are having to cut asking prices to get their properties sold, it might not feel like Utah's real estate market could be considered the best in the country. But in a report released Tuesday by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, Utah is No. 1 among all states in home-price appreciation, from the fourth quarter of 2006 to the same period in 2007, with a 9.27 percent gain. It is the state's fifth consecutive quarter in the top spot. Utah's appreciation rate is down considerably from the double-digit gains of recent years. When it first topped the nation in appreciation in the fourth quarter 2006, its one-year appreciation topped 17 percent. By the third quarter of last year, appreciation had slowed to 12.9 percent before dipping even farther in the fourth quarter. But compared with many other states, coping with a much sharper residential downturn, Utah's residential real estate market is faring much better. "We do have a lot of inventory, which has caused prices to have flattened," said Realtor Bill Heiner, second vice president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. "But we're still doing well."

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